Goulash: Inside the Kremlin’s Worries; Chinese Spy Suspicions in Budapest; NATO’s Intel Fault Lines

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

“WE KNOW THAT THE KREMLIN IS VERY WORRIED” – INTERVIEW WITH ESTONIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE’S TOP ANALYST

Andres Vosman (freshly out of EFIS, Estonia’s foreign intelligence) says the mood inside Russia is best summed up as “anxiety” — and the Kremlin is obsessively monitoring that mood down to the local level. He argues Moscow is already worried about what happens when large numbers of brutalized, disappointed veterans come home (PTSD, weapons, demands for status), because Russia simply isn’t built to absorb that shock. He paints the larger picture of Russia as a stagnating economy sliding into deeper dependency on China, with sanctions relief unlikely to fix the structural rot. If you want a sober read on “will Russia go beyond Ukraine?” and on how Moscow calibrates sabotage (and where it still sees red lines), this interview by Holger Roonema is worth your time. (Make sure you follow Holger’s new English-language newsletter, The Baltic Flank!)

HOW UKRAINE’S MAJOR CORRUPTION SCANDAL REACHED SLOVAKIA

This story by Karin Kőváry Sólymos of the Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak (ICJK) and Valeriya Yegoshyna of Schemes/RFE-RL Ukraine shows how a major Ukrainian corruption probe into Energoatom leads to Slovakia, where figures linked to the so-called Midas case owned companies, real estate, and had financial ties. Prosecutors say some of the money may have been laundered through Slovak firms, according to findings by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine. Read it here.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

FROM THE MSS TO MCC? NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS AT ORBÁN’S THINK TANK

A few months ago, the Orbán government’s lavishly funded political school and foreign lobbying arm, the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), cut ties with a Chinese researcher who worked there. The decision came after a national security investigation was launched over suspicions that the researcher had close connections to intelligence officers from China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), multiple sources with knowledge of the incident told me. The Chinese researcher has lived in Hungary for years and embedded himself in the Orbán government’s wider ecosystem. He previously studied at the National University of Public Service, a state-run institution that trains future Hungarian government officials as well as law enforcement and national security officers. Open-source information shows that he was also cooperating with the Chinese Embassy in Budapest and the China-CEE Institute — an organization believed to function as an MSS espionage front.

Both of the researcher’s Hungarian affiliations — the National University of Public Service and MCC — are de facto overseen by Balázs Orbán, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s (unrelated) political director and the ruling Fidesz party’s campaign manager. Balázs Orbán is a vocal advocate of closer cooperation with China, which he frames as geopolitical “connectivity.” MCC’s core mission, however, is lobbying American and Western European conservative circles, and creating channels through which its staff and affiliated researchers can build personal and political ties with Western counterparts in order to advance Orbán’s agenda. Notably, the MCC-affiliated Chinese researcher suspected of having links to MSS intelligence officers specialized in US-China relations. A facial-recognition search shows him attending CPAC Hungary 2025 — a gathering of low- to mid-level MAGA figures and European far-right leaders. His Hungarian university supervisor was also part of Viktor Orbán’s large delegation of pro-government pundits to Washington, DC, in November 2025.

While my sources did not provide direct evidence that the researcher engaged in classic espionage, the MSS — created in the 1980s on the blueprint of the Soviet KGB — is known for playing the long game. The service has historically placed assets in seemingly insignificant positions in the West and, in a pattern resembling Soviet “sleeper” agents, allowed them to work their way into influential networks and decision-making circles with access to sensitive information. Chinese citizens studying in the West are also required to join the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and are expected to carry out tasks for Chinese diplomats.

This is not the first time foreign individuals affiliated with MCC have been suspected of foreign intelligence links. In 2022, MCC’s then-visiting lecturer John Laughland was briefly detained at London Gatwick Airport upon arrival from Hungary, on suspicion of ties to Russian intelligence. Laughland is a British pundit who ran a Paris-based, Russia-funded think tank and has advised the Netherlands’ far-right FvD party on international affairs. More recently, I reported in an earlier issue of this newsletter that MCC appointed Serbian scholar Miša Đurković as its new head of geopolitical studies. Đurković has personal and professional ties to individuals accused of plotting the failed 2016 coup in Montenegro—an operation attributed to Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU. (MCC did not respond to a request for comment on the incident involving its Chinese researcher.)

TRUMP’S GREENLAND MANIA THREATENS INTEL COOPERATION

In recent weeks, I’ve been speaking with Central European national security experts and intelligence officers about the unease triggered by Washington. A series of recent US moves — from the bizarre Maduro “kidnapping” episode to the Trump administration’s direct talks with Moscow over Ukraine, and, most recently, its rhetoric and threats regarding Greenland — have caused genuine head-scratching inside European intelligence services. One source stressed that, for now, nothing has changed on the operational level, even when it comes to Russia-related cases. CIA officers stationed in Europe are “as reliable as ever” — and, if anything, just as puzzled by their own administration’s direction as their European counterparts. Asked what would happen if tensions over Greenland failed to de-escalate, one Central European intelligence officer simply sighed, “It’s crazy. I don’t even want to think about it.”

Several sources argued that any serious escalation could, sooner or later, lead to two parallel developments. On the one hand, it could trigger the fragmentation of the Anglo-Saxon Five Eyes intelligence alliance (the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). On the other, it could force a group of “reliable” EU member states to move toward much closer intelligence cooperation among themselves. (Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia are, of course, already politely excluded from the group of reliable countries.) But given the growing unpredictability of the US administration and the rise of pro-Kremlin parties across Europe, the landscape of intelligence cooperation and the understanding of what constitutes a “trusted” country within the Western alliance may change dramatically in the coming years. “Regardless of whether Trump can be restrained by his own people or not,” one Central European national security official added, “a dozen of the more reliable European intelligence services should really start banding together — like a European version of the Five Eyes.”

IF REELECTED, ORBÁN COULD PUT HUNGARIAN POLICE UNDER TIGHTER POLITICAL CONTROL

As Hungary’s election — now officially set for April 12 — approaches, positioning, self-positioning, and leaking around Viktor Orbán’s potential next cabinet have already begun. This assumes, of course, that Orbán somehow manages to close the opposition Tisza party’s current 10–15 point lead in the polls and secure reelection. While opposition leader Péter Magyar is gradually introducing his shadow cabinet to the public, Orbán’s long-standing modus operandi has been to keep the identities of future ministers strictly to himself, deliberately maintaining uncertainty among his inner circle. 

One change, however, appears almost inevitable. Interior Minister Sándor Pintér — a 77-years old senior former police officer and Orbán’s perennial interior minister — is widely expected to retire. Pintér has held the post in every Orbán government and was long regarded as the only minister with a degree of autonomy from the prime minister. Recently, he has already lost much of his former influence, but not everything. Notably, in the first half of 2025, Pintér ruled out using police force against participants in the Budapest Pride march, which Orbán’s government had formally banned. Despite occasional tear-gassing and a forceful approach toward anti-government protesters, the police under Pintér have largely refrained from systematic violence. With notable exceptions, law enforcement has also rarely been used for raids targeting opposition figures or other political actors.

That restraint may not survive Pintér’s departure. If Viktor Orbán wins another term, Pintér’s retirement could pave the way for a far less independent interior minister overseeing law enforcement. Government and government-linked sources have for months told me that the frontrunner for the position is widely seen as none else than Marcell Biró, Orbán’s current national security advisor. Bíró, aged 48, has previously been described to me as a technocrat and bureaucrat whose strengths lie in management and execution rather than independent judgment — let alone political ambition. His appointment would likely mean more direct, hands-on political control by Orbán over the police and other law-enforcement bodies, including the internal security service responsible for investigating officers of other agencies.

SECOND HELPINGS

We’d already reported but the story went on… here’s a second bite of our previous stories and scoops.

Fico gets a “bilateral light” meeting with Trump. There is a particular kind of scoop that is not reporting on what has already happened, but on plans for what is about to happen — a delicate genre, since plans have a habit of changing due to unforeseen events. Back in July 2025, I reported that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico had received an invitation to the White House to sign a nuclear deal that would have seen Westinghouse build a €13–15 billion nuclear power plant in Slovakia. I also reported that the visit could happen soon. Instead, Fico launched his now-familiar Viktor Orbán–style “peacock dance,” opening parallel talks on nuclear cooperation with Russia — a move that understandably angered Washington. What was initially envisioned as a full-fledged White House visit and formal bilateral meeting ultimately shrank into something far more modest.

An intergovernmental agreement on nuclear cooperation — a preliminary, non-binding deal — was eventually signed much later, on January 17, 2025. The anticipated White House visit was downgraded to a brief, one-hour appearance and photo opportunity at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and residence. In a telling detail, Energy Minister Denisa Saková was sidelined so that Fico could personally sign the agreement alongside Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Fico claimed he was received in Trump’s “living room”, accompanied by Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár; Marco Rubio was also present. Fico later described this setting as a “sign of respect and trust.” However, photos were actually taken at the bar of the Mar-a-Lago private club, outside Trump’s residence. Moreover, neither Trump nor the White House even acknowledged the meeting on their official social media channels.

Ziobro and wife receive political asylum in Hungary. Two weeks ago, I published a consequential scoop in this newsletter that was immediately picked up by Polish media: Hungary had informed its EU partners that it had granted asylum to two Polish citizens.

The letter I obtained did not include names, but all logical assumptions pointed to Zbigniew Ziobro, the former justice minister under Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) government, who is facing 26 criminal charges. Polish media — with Gazeta Wyborcza leading the way — quickly identified Ziobro and his wife as the likely beneficiaries. Ziobro himself confirmed the reports just days later. 

As Rzeczpospolita reported, my scoop and the subsequent wave of Polish media coverage appear to have rattled Ziobro. According to the paper, his lawyer had previously lied to the paper’s reporter when directly asked about his client’s asylum status. Meanwhile, Polish OSINT enthusiasts on social media identified the location from which Ziobro gave a video interview in Budapest: the same apartment where his former deputy, Marcin Romanowski — who fled to Hungary under similar circumstances a year earlier — had conducted his own interviews. Stay tuned — we’re following this saga as closely as ever.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

If you like our scoops and stories, here are some more articles from our partners!

WHEN A CLONE CALLS YOU: THE ANATOMY OF A MULTI-BILLION-DOLLAR AI FRAUD BUSINESS. Investigace.cz explains how AI-powered scams prey on fear by convincingly cloning the voices or faces of people victims trust. (Text in Czech.)

INSIDE THE LUXURY APARTMENT PROJECT OF LŐRINC MÉSZÁROS, VIKTOR ORBÁN’S WEALTHY FRIEND. Documents obtained by Direkt36 show that a luxury accommodation complex is being built on the outskirts of Viktor Orbán’s home village by the businessman often dubbed his “wallet,” with financing from the partly state-owned MBH Bank. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANISATIONS SUPPORTING THE RULING PARTIES DOMINATE NATIONAL COOPERATION FUND TENDERS. Átlátszó analyzes how the National Cooperation Fund, originally created to support Hungarian civil society, has, over the past 12 years, increasingly channeled public money to organizations closely linked to the ruling party. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

DESSERT AND FURTHER READINGS

For those still hungry for more, we’re finishing today’s menu with a couple of recommendations from our friends and colleagues.

THERE’S A VICIOUS ANTISEMITIC PRECEDENT FOR TRUMP’S DEMONIZATION OF RENÉE NICOLE GOOD. VSquare editor Emily Tamkin writes about how the Trump administration is attempting to link the woman who was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis earlier this month to Jewish billionaire philanthropist George Soros.

THE MYTH OF RUSSIA’S OMNIPOTENCE. Our Estonian colleague Holger Roonemaa, writing in his The Baltic Flank newsletter, argues that despite widespread fears and narratives portraying Russia as omnipotent, its failures in Ukraine and assessments by defense officials show it is powerful—but not invincible.

I’M FROM GREENLAND. HERE’S HOW I FEEL RIGHT NOW. Julia Aka Wille at The European Correspondent reflects on her experience as someone from Greenland amid rising geopolitical tension over the island’s future, saying Greenlanders feel ignored and determined to have their voices heard rather than be treated as a pawn in external power struggles.

This was VSquare’s 58th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM