Goulash: Plan B for Orbán’s Defeat, Russian Doxing of Central Europeans, and V4 Defense Dilemmas

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

DOXING: WHEN PRIVATE DATA BECOMES A RUSSIAN WEAPON

In a joint investigation by FRONTSTORY.PL, VSquare, the Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak (ICJK), and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), my colleagues uncover how Russian actors are systematically hunting for the private data of thousands they label enemies of Russian president Vladimir Putin. This data is weaponized through doxing—publicly exposing individuals to coordinated online harassment. Using a tactic first tested in Ukraine, they’ve also targeted Central Europe, for example, by publishing a list of Polish activists, politicians, and journalists who support Ukraine. The so-called “doxing Wikipedia” spans the region, listing names from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Yet across Central Europe, no one is effectively fighting back. Read the full investigation in Polish here and the English version on VSquare.

INSIDE VIKTOR ORBÁN’S FAILURE TO ACHIEVE HIS DEMOGRAPHIC GOAL

Despite Viktor Orbán’s repeated pledges to grow Hungary’s population without relying on immigration, a comprehensive data analysis by Direkt36 reveals that his government is failing to achieve this goal. Not only have birth rates hit record lows, but emigration—especially among young people—is accelerating, posing major risks to Hungary’s future. Between 2014 and 2024, 37.8% of the country’s population decline was due to Hungarians leaving for other EU countries, according to Eurostat data analyzed by Direkt36. While Orbán continues to promote pro-natalist policies and hosts the biennial Budapest Demographic Summit to advance his agenda, Hungary is losing the demographic competition with its European peers. The story was reported by Kamilla Marton and Bence X. Széchenyi, read the original Hungarian version here and in English on VSquare. 

MYSTERIOUS HUNGARIAN INTERESTED IN €20 MILLION VILLA NEXT TO PUTIN’S ALLEGED MANSION

In a report by Katalin Erdélyi for Átlátszó, we take you inside La Zagaleta—an ultra-exclusive enclave near Marbella, guarded by armed security and brimming with helipads, golf courses, and palatial villas. Now, a €20 million property in this elite hideaway has caught the eye of a Hungarian billionaire. Erdélyi follows the trail of the mystery buyer, questioning some of Hungary’s wealthiest elites to uncover who might be behind the lavish interest. Read the Hungarian version here and VSquare’s English summary here.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

U.S. THE NEXT SAFE HOUSE FOR POLISH FUGITIVES?

Rumors about Viktor Orbán’s daughter Ráhel and her husband István Tiborcz moving to New York with their children had been swirling for weeks—finally confirmed just days ago. While their true motives remain conveniently vague, the timing hasn’t gone unnoticed: they’re leaving just ahead of the 2026 election campaign, just as they did before the 2022 vote (when they left to Spain). The move is widely seen as an acknowledgment of their potential liability to Orbán’s re-election prospects—in case you missed it, watch Direkt36’s documentary on the Orbán–Tiborcz dynasty’s enormous wealth—and as a precautionary hedge in case things go sideways for the prime minister in the April 2026 elections. But they’re not the only ones reading the political weather forecast (a recent poll shows the opposition TISZA party leading Orbán’s Fidesz by 52% to 34%.)

Several Central European insiders have pointed out to me that while Orbán has long offered refuge to embattled political allies—from North Macedonia’s ex-PM Nikola Gruevski to Poland’s former deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski (not to mention plans uncovered by VSquare to harbor Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik)—his protective umbrella seems a little more threadbare as his poll numbers slump. What happens to those under Orbán’s wing when the wind changes? According to my sources, the United States—under Donald Trump ideologically aligned leadership—is shaping up to be the preferred haven for those hoping to dodge legal consequences back home, especially among right-wing Polish politicians facing prosecution. That makes it unlikely more of them will seek refuge in Budapest, no matter how welcoming Orbán pretends to be. And just in case the message wasn’t clear, Trump’s recent threat to slap a 50% tariff on Brazil over what he calls the “witch hunt” against former president Jair Bolsonaro serves as a second unmistakable signal to those already planning their exit strategies.

SOME ORBÁN-FUNDED THINK TANKERS ALREADY SEEK EXIT STRATEGIES

Speaking of exit strategies: in recent months, I’ve chatted with several people connected to the vast international lobbying empire of Viktor Orbán’s government—which includes all sorts of GONGOs masquerading as think tanks, research hubs, or educational institutes. They told me that it’s noticeable how some of their colleagues are already quietly preparing to move on—mostly abroad. In past years, outfits like the Orbán government-funded Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) or the Danube Institute offered cushy gigs to both Hungarians and foreigners in exchange for toeing the party line and singing Orbán’s praises on the global stage. But with both the polling numbers and the economic indicators pointing to a shaky future—for Orbán’s regime and the funding behind these propaganda ventures—sources say many are now weighing their options and dusting off their CVs. And once again, the ideologically aligned United States seems to be the most popular destination of choice. For another group—the ones who were never truly committed to the far-right, ultra-conservative agenda but were simply in it for financial stability—their deliberations are a bit different. In recent months, Orbán has dialed up both his anti-Ukrainian and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric (not to talk about MCC’s plans with Poland’s Ordo Iuris to dismantle the European Union) to such extremes that it’s becoming not just morally indefensible, but also professionally risky. After all, for many early- or mid-career experts and researchers, being tied to the Orbán regime may soon be less of a résumé booster and more of a red flag.

KREMLIN BACKS ANOTHER PROPAGANDA FIELD TRIP FOR PRO-ORBÁN PUNDIT

Russian authorities are currently helping organize yet another reporting trip for a pro-Orbán propagandist to occupied Ukrainian territories and Russia’s Kursk region, according to multiple Central European sources with expertise in national security. (The trip’s preparations have been confirmed by multiple independent sources, but the propagandist’s name was mentioned by only one source—so I’m choosing not to publish it for now.) While Viktor Orbán’s regime floods Hungary with government billboards vilifying Ukraine and tries to turn opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession into a central campaign issue, its propaganda machine is starting to sputter. Simply put: they’re running out of material. Ironically, it’s Hungary’s independent outlets—Telex, 24.hu, 444, HVG, Válasz Online—that consistently send reporters to Kyiv and the frontlines to cover the war. Orbán’s taxpayer-funded propaganda empire? It mostly rehashes Russian sources and rarely bothers with actual reporting from Ukraine. On the rare occasion they do “report,” it’s usually from the other side of the front—thanks to help from Russian authorities, including its intelligence services. Take Georg Spöttle, the German-Hungarian, pro-Orbán, pro-Kremlin mouthpiece who happily filed dispatches from occupied Mariupol and even Chechnya—while also receiving a little help from Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU. Now, according to my sources, a similar Kremlin-assisted visit is in the works, just as tensions between Hungary and Ukraine reach new highs.

POLAND SPENDS BIG, HUNGARY STALLS: VISEGRÁD’S DEFENSE DILEMMA DEEPENS

For different reasons, defense spending is becoming a major issue—and potential headache—for all four Visegrád countries in the upcoming political season. At the NATO Summit in The Hague this June, allies adopted a new target: 5% of GDP by 2030, with 3.5% for core defense spending. The move was driven largely by pressure from Donald Trump and the rising Russian threat. I spoke with Central European defense experts, tracked recent budget debates with help from VSquare’s Tamara Kaňuchová, and reviewed the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) arms transfer database.

Poland currently spends 4.7% of its GDP on defense—critical for keeping strong bilateral ties with the U.S. Still, Trumpworld’s backing of opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki shows that even high spending doesn’t shield Donald Tusk’s government from political attacks. SIPRI recorded 74 arms transfers to Poland between 2022–2024, with almost all from the U.S. last year, except a Spanish radar. However, a senior European diplomat in Warsaw warned me that Poland’s planned defense budget—20% of total state budget spending in 2025—may be politically and economically unsustainable in the long run.

Hungary, by contrast, is barely meeting the old 2% NATO target. Well before The Hague NATO summit, Orbán dismissed the new 5% goal as something that would “shoot the Hungarian economy in the lungs,” exposing how little fiscal space remains after years of economic mismanagement. As I previously reported, his celebration of Trump’s victory in 2024 was tied to hopes for a quick peace in Ukraine—and a chance to justify low defense spending with cover from Washington. Hungary had just five international arms purchases from 2022–2024, per SIPRI—the lowest in the region—and has been stuck at around 2.1% of GDP for years. There’s no sign yet of U.S. pressure to buy American arms, but Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy limits Orbán’s room to resist Trump-style transactional demands. Meanwhile, Orbán handed control of Hungary’s state-owned defense industry to his inner circle, funneling public funds into private hands.

Slovakia shows some overlap with Hungary, especially arms deals with the Czechoslovak Group, which have raised concerns over shady intermediaries. Yet PM Robert Fico’s rhetoric differs: just ahead of the NATO summit, he promoted “neutrality” and joined Spain in asserting the right to reject spending hikes. He pledged to cap next year’s defense budget at 2.2% of GDP, while supporting infrastructure like roads and hospitals that could have dual-use value. Still, Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák is seen as pro-American, and key procurements—like Black Hawks—involve U.S. technology. SIPRI lists 14 foreign arms purchases for Slovakia during 2022–2024.

In the Czech Republic, defense spending was a politically divisive issue this spring. Andrej Babiš’s ANO party, likely to win October’s elections, sent mixed signals about defense and Ukraine. Babiš eventually supported raising spending but also promised “audits.” While the Czech defense budget has just hit 2% of GDP, it has more than doubled in nominal terms since 2021 and Russia’s full-scale invasion. SIPRI recorded 17 international arms purchases from 2022–2024. The most recent major acquisitions include 24 U.S.-made F-35A Lightning II fighter jets and at least 61 of Germany’s latest Leopard 2A8 tanks, with an option for 16 more. However, arms spending remains at risk of being influenced by the election campaign and the makeup of the next Czech government.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

KALIŇÁK’S MINISTRY BUILDS, COOKS, AND BUYS FOR HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS: WE ANALYZED THE DEFENSE MINISTRY’S SERVICE CONTRACTS. ICJK and the Stop Corruption Foundation analyzed procurement contracts—excluding arms and equipment—of Slovakia’s Ministry of Defense and found that the most expensive deals were with Slovnaft, while an oligarch linked to Viktor Orbán also appears in the construction of a military hospital. (Text in Slovak.)

PROTAGONISTA: JOURNALISTS WHO UNINTENTIONALLY BECAME THE HEROES OF THEIR OWN STORIES. Investigace.cz’s Pavla Holcová conducted nine interviews with European investigative journalists who expose power, connect the dots, and reveal the personal toll behind major stories. Spoiler: VSquare colleagues will also make an appearance in this series. (Text in Czech.)

THIS IS HOW ORBÁN LET GO OF HEALTHCARE REFORM – HEMORRHAGING HOSPITALS III. Direkt36’s investigation into the mismanagement of Hungary’s healthcare system concludes with a deep dive into how Viktor Orbán chose neither to fund nor to reform it. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

HUNGARIAN PUBLIC MEDIA’S CLOSE COOPERATION WITH KEY CHINESE MEDIA REVEALED AFTER ÁTLÁTSZÓ SUCCESSFULLY SUES FOR CONTRACTS. Átlátszó has obtained some contracts through public information request lawsuits but plans further legal steps as more documents seem to be held back. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 46th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM