Goulash: US Sanctions on Orbán’s Chief of Staff ‘Radioactive’; Georgia Regime Gets CEE Help

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

EXPOSED: CZECH WEAPONS STILL FLOWING TO RUSSIA VIA THIRD COUNTRIES

Here’s your usual reminder that, most of the time, it’s not that sanctions themselves are ineffective—i.e., not achieving the desired effect—but rather their implementation or enforcement. This article, written by Kristina Vejnbender of Investigace.cz and Sergey Panov of The Insider as part of a larger international collaboration reveals how, despite sanctions on civilian weapons imposed a decade ago, Russian snipers continue to rely on Western sniper rifles, weapons optics, and ammunition. Moreover, it would seem that these civilian weapons aren’t only being used by hunters, as evidenced by a Czech weapons-using Russian sniper club’s announcement that one of its members died in Ukraine. Certain weapon parts and accessories reach Russia through various routes—via Turkey, Kazakhstan, or Armenia—as this investigation thoroughly traces.

CLIMATE SUMMIT SHADOWS: CORRUPTION AND CENSORSHIP IN AZERBAIJAN 

Global climate conferences are often paradoxical, with participants arriving on private jets and leaving behind a carbon footprint the size of a yeti’s. However, the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan at the end of last year took this to another level. While some of the world’s most influential leaders skipped the event entirely, many Western democracies still discussed sustainability and environmental protection just a few kilometers from prisons holding political detainees and journalists. These individuals had been jailed for investigating not only the regime’s corruption but also environmental destruction tied to the Aliyev family. VSquare’s Tamara Kaňuchová spoke with Leyla Mustafayeva, the exiled interim editor-in-chief of AbzasMedia, to shed light on the serious flaws of COP29 and the troubling relationship between Western countries and the regime in Azerbaijan.

TRUMP’S TEAM: WHAT IT MEANS FOR CENTRAL EUROPE

Donald Trump becomes U.S. president in ten days, and this timely summary by VSquare’s Emily Tamkin highlights the nominations and appointments that  could significantly impact Central Europe. These include some tariff hawks as well as intelligence chief nominee Tulsi Gabbard, whose Kremlin sympathies have raised serious concerns among European intelligence agencies. And while Viktor Orbán openly embraces Trump, the latter’s policies might threaten Hungary’s car industry and its ambition to become a Chinese bridgehead. Read more here.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

ASSOCIATES OF ORBÁN’S US-SANCTIONED CHIEF OF STAFF MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY “RADIOACTIVE” GLOBAL MAGNITSKY DESIGNATION

In October 2023, I wrote in this newsletter that “the Biden administration informed some European allies that it is compiling a list of Hungarian individuals to be sanctioned for involvement in corruption.” At the time, I didn’t know the identities of the potential targets. However, a few months later, I heard rumors that the sanctions being cooked up might target individuals who had amassed considerable wealth due to their proximity to Antal Rogán, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s chief of staff (head of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office) — and possibly Rogán himself. My initial sources cautioned that nothing was finalized and everything could change at the last minute, so I refrained from reporting on this without confirmation. U.S. diplomacy, for its part, remained extremely discreet throughout. Then, earlier this week, the bombshell dropped: Antal Rogán was sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act for corruption. Rogán is Orbán’s most powerful minister, operating the ruling Fidesz party’s campaign apparatus, directing the vast pro-government propaganda media empire, and overseeing all civilian intelligence services.

For my non-Hungarian readers: in the mid-2010s, Rogán infamously spearheaded the Orbán government’s controversial golden visa scheme, which allowed offshore companies tied to Rogán’s associates to sell residency permits and Schengen visas for €300,000 each. This scheme facilitated the entry of 15,000 poorly vetted Chinese nationals, 1,200 Russians, and, in third place, a few hundred Iranians. Among them were Assad’s money launderers, the Russian spy chief’s son, a Russian mobster, and other questionable figures. However, Rogán’s eventual designation did not include others closely associated with him in corruption scandals, such as his ex-wife, his longtime right-hand man Balázs Kertész, or Gyula Balásy, whose companies have received government advertising contracts worth tens of billions of forints. The official U.S. Treasury statement, however, repeatedly emphasizes that Rogán enriched “cronies loyal to himself” and warns that “other persons that engage in certain transactions or activities with the individual may expose themselves to sanctions or be subject to an enforcement action.” To clarify whether Rogán’s potential proxies might also face consequences, I consulted a source with knowledge of the designation’s details. According to this source, the sanctions on Rogán are “radioactive,” meaning that “anyone handling his money, whether a bank or a proxy, is affected by this designation. Anyone with financial ties to a designee should seriously reconsider.”

HUNGARIAN PROPAGANDA ENLISTS AMERICAN MAGA ACTIVIST IN ROGÁN SANCTIONS DEFENSE, RAISING LEGAL QUESTIONS

Hungary’s government-controlled propaganda — directly overseen by Antal Rogán — immediately framed the sanctions as political vengeance by the Biden administration and U.S. Ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman. Notably, it omitted any reference to the reason for Rogán’s designation, particularly the word “corruption.” At the same time, Rogán’s media gave significant attention to criticism from Bryan E. Leib, a low-profile MAGA activist, who lashed out at the Biden administration while praising the Orbán government. To inflate his significance, Leib was portrayed as a potential Trump nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Hungary, despite lacking political weight. (In 2018, Leib ran for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District and lost decisively to a Democratic incumbent, receiving just 6.6% of the vote; he also lost in the Republican primary to represent Florida’’s 25th Congressional district in 2024.) In reality, Leib is a senior fellow at the Budapest-based Center for Fundamental Rights, an ultra-conservative think tank that receives substantial funding from Rogán’s ministry via an intermediary foundation. This setup reflects the usual modus operandi of far-right commentators funded by the Orbán government to influence public opinion. However, Leib’s involvement raises legal questions under longstanding U.S. foreign lobbying regulations, given his status as an American citizen. I sent Leib a series of questions to clarify whether he receives payments from the Hungarian government-supported Center for Fundamental Rights while being in talks with Donald Trump’s team about a potential ambassadorship, and if he is lobbying for the lifting of sanctions on Rogán at the same time. If so, it seems likely that he would be required to register as a foreign agent (or lobbyist) under the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). As of now, he has not responded — and he has not registered himself.

HERE’S THE “STUDY” ORBÁN USED TO JUSTIFY ASYLUM FOR MARCIN ROMANOWSKI

Polish-Hungarian relations hit a new low in December when Hungary granted political asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a former Law and Justice deputy justice minister accused of 11 crimes, including corruption and abuse of office. (My colleague András Dezső broke the story on Hungary’s Telex, and we simultaneously reported it for and in collaboration with Poland’s Gazeta.pl.) Hungary’s government has yet to provide a clear justification for this decision, which effectively challenges the legitimacy of Poland’s judicial system. Viktor Orbán merely stated at his annual press conference that the decision was based on a “comprehensive (or lengthy) study” of the rule of law situation in Poland, leaving me wondering what kind of study that might be. I promptly filed public information requests with all potentially relevant ministries. Eventually, the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office disclosed that Viktor Orbán’s reference was to a study published online by the aforementioned ultra-conservative Center for Fundamental Rights. The study, titled “The Rule of Law Is Under Threat in Poland: 10 of the Most Blatant Moves by Donald Tusk’s Liberal Polish Government,” is anything but comprehensive — it’s a mere four-and-a-half-page pamphlet with no listed author. Many of its citations are from the Rule of Law Observer, an online platform run by the influential ultra-catholic Ordo Iuris Institute and other organizations supporting Poland’s Law and Justice party. 

The Center for Fundamental Rights itself appears to have only one Polish expert, Sébastien Meuwissen, a Belgian-Polish citizen who previously worked for several Law and Justice politicians, including former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Meuwissen also served as a communications director for Ordo Iuris Institute and has published articles for many years with the Visegrád Post, a fringe far-right site later revealed by András Dezső to be part of the Voice of Europe network — a Russian intelligence operation aimed at covertly funding and supporting the far-right across Europe. This site, where Meuwissen published, was managed by two French Russophile far-right figures based in Budapest, whose secret Russian funding was uncovered during the Voice of Europe investigation by a joint European counterintelligence operation. “Monitoring the crackdown on democracy in Poland: Sébastien Meuwissen joins the Center for Fundamental Rights’ team as a research fellow,” the ultra-conservative think-tank announced hiring him last March. To verify whether Meuwissen was indeed the author whose work Orbán cited as the basis for the Romanowski asylum decision, I reached out to both him and his employer but have received no response so far. (If you’re interested in more Polish officials seeking asylum in strange places, here’s one about a judge escaping to Minsk.)

POLISH AND HUNGARIAN “FAKE OBSERVERS” HELPED GEORGIA’S PRO-KREMLIN REGIME

Now about a very different study:  A new analysis conducted by the European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE) and Atlantic Council DFRLab’s Eto Buziashvili “identified 23 politically biased observers who helped whitewash the fraudulent 2024 Georgian Parliamentary Election,” many of whom, somewhat surprisingly, were from Poland and Hungary. The research highlighted that the election — widely accused by Western democracies of being stolen by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream (GD) regime — was endorsed by several questionable figures, labeled as fake election observers. These included disgraced Polish Law and Justice politician Ryszard Czarnecki (accused of corruption and fraud); four representatives of the Polish ultra-Catholic Ordo Iuris Institute; Hungarian ruling party MP Lőrinc Nacsa and MEP András László, who  commented that “these are very free elections and the entire process is going perfectly”; two representatives (one Spanish) of the Hungarian Center for Fundamental Rights (yes, them again); and a former government official from Viktor Orbán’s office. The report received little attention in Poland and none in Hungary, likely due to its release just before Christmas, but it is significant for identifying key actors bolstering GD’s position in Europe. The involvement of the large ultra-conservative and right-wing Polish delegation is particularly noteworthy, given that Polish President Andrzej Duda and many in his party have actually shown support for the Georgian opposition and President Salome Zourabichvili. This increasing cooperation between Polish ultra-conservatives and Viktor Orbán’s political operatives appears to be injecting growing amounts of pro-Kremlin influence into Law and Justice circles.

ORBÁN’S SPIN DOCTOR SPOTTED IN TBILISI, ALLEGEDLY WORKING TO CONNECT GEORGIAN REGIME WITH TRUMP

Hungary’s involvement in propping up the Georgian regime runs deeper than it appears. Let’s not forget that Viktor Orbán called the fraudulent Georgian election in October 2024 for the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party before the official results were even announced. The very next day, Orbán traveled to Tbilisi to legitimize the regime’s so-called “victory.” Behind the scenes, Orbán’s campaign strategists, particularly his chief spin doctor, Árpád Habony, have been aiding the pro-Kremlin GD government for at least two years, according to sources closely following Georgian politics. These claims were shared with me and German journalist Silvia Stöber, an expert on political developments in Georgia, who collaborated with me on this scoop. Multiple sources confirmed Habony’s frequent presence in Tbilisi, notably at the Sheraton Hotel near the airport and GD’s headquarters. A Georgian politician alleged that Habony played a pivotal role during Hungary’s EU presidency and the Georgian parliamentary election campaign, actively assisting GD. (In a previous Goulash issue, I detailed Habony’s involvement in political campaigns and elections in Slovakia and Poland, as well as his trips to Florida to network with Trump’s campaign team.)

Moreover, the Georgian regime reportedly placed great trust in Habony, hoping he could leverage Orbán’s connections to establish ties with Donald Trump and his inner circle in a bid to lift U.S. sanctions on senior GD leaders. However, these efforts appear to have fallen short. According to a recent Georgian media report, “Viktor Orbán was organizing a meeting between [GD leader and Georgia’s de facto leader, billionaire Bidzina] Ivanishvili and Trump, but the plan collapsed after the U.S. imposed Magnitsky sanctions on Orbán’s chief of staff, Antal Rogán.” Orbán and Habony face significant hurdles in these efforts. Trump has already shown support for Georgian opposition figure Salome Zourabichvili, inviting her to his inauguration. Meanwhile, a photo of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze surrounded by Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders has sparked outrage in Republican circles. Congressman Joe Wilson even posted on X: “The same terrorists actively plotted to assassinate Donald Trump and call for the death of America every day. We see you. America will not be fooled.” (I reached out to Habony through his company, V4NA Ltd., but received no reply.)

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

PROTECTING SOVEREIGNTY THE RUSSIAN WAY – ALSO KNOWN AS, PROTECTING REGIME INTERESTS AND TARGETING DISSENT. Representatives of organizations targeted by the Orbán government’s Russia-style crackdown on foreign agents share their experiences with Atlatszo.hu. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

MOLDOVAN INTELLIGENCE REPORT: HOW RUSSIA TRIED TO SABOTAGE THE EU REFERENDUM. SIS Director Alexandru Musteață’s December report, analyzed here by Investigace.cz, exposes extensive Russian influence operations. (Text in Czech.) 

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SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM