Goulash: Orbán’s Secret Plot to Save Milorad Dodik Exposed; Latest Polls From the V4

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

ORBÁN’S COVERT BOSNIA OPERATION: SPECIAL FORCES STOOD READY TO EXTRACT DODIK

This one’s straight out of a spy thriller – but it actually happened: we just uncovered Hungary’s secret plan to extract Milorad Dodik if he faced arrest. In late February, Orbán’s elite special forces quietly arrived in Republika Srpska, under the cover of a “joint exercise,” ready to whisk Dodik away to Hungary if a Bosnian court ordered him behind bars. That didn’t happen – but not for lack of trying. Dodik was sentenced to prison but avoided immediate arrest, and the Hungarian plot got exposed to multiple governments, forcing Budapest to reveal its deployed counter-terrorism forces and pretend they had nothing to hide. The fallout? Tensions flaring between Hungary and Bosnia, a blocked military plane, and even a warning from the U.S. to Orbán’s forces. Read the full investigation on VSquare – and if you speak Czech, check out the version published on Investigace.cz!

EASTER PURGE? ORBÁN SETS DEADLINE TO CRUSH INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND CIVIL SOCIETY

For 15 years, Viktor Orbán has systematically restricted independent voices, following a Russian-style playbook. With Trump back in office and U.S. foreign aid frozen, he sees no real obstacles left. Orbán’s February 22 annual state of the nation speech made it clear: he wants to eliminate independent media and NGOs he deems part of the “empire” – and he wants to do so by Easter. Given the precision of his timeline, this is no empty threat, argues the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute’s Róbert László in this analysis for a joint project with Slovakia’s ICJK. The analysis focuses on the threat posed by Hungary’s Sovereignty Protection Office, which has been harassing, among others, our Hungarian partner organization Átlátszó since last year (here’s our response to it). Read the analysis here.

STORIES FROM THE CAPTURED STATE: THE ORIGINS OF KOČNER’S LIBRARY

February 21, 2025 marked seven years since the brutal murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová. To honor Ján and Martina’s legacy, our colleagues at the Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak (ICJK), in partnership with Aktuality.sk, have published a book that pieces together the corruption and scandals exposed in the wake of their murder. Stories from the Captured State (original Slovak title: Secrets of Kočner’s Library) dives deep into the murky world of Slovakia’s power players – what Ján uncovered, and why he was silenced. The book is already on course to become a bestseller in Slovakia, and you can order it now in Slovak in print and ebook format (for non-Slovak readers, don’t worry — the English translation is already underway). In this issue, we’re also sharing an excerpt from the book by ICJK reporter Tomáš Madleňák – because Ján’s work, and the fight for accountability, isn’t over.

“WE DON’T WANT SLOVAKIA TO DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST” – INTERVIEW WITH JÁN GÁLIK

The murder of Ján Kuciak and Martina Kušnírová seven years ago shook Slovakia and forced Prime Minister Robert Fico to resign — but now, with Fico back in power, protests have returned. Kuciak’s close colleague, Investigace.cz’s Pavla Holcová, interviewed Ján Gálik, a key organizer of both the 2018 and 2025 anti-government demonstrations, on a Czech-language podcast. We’re proud to publish this edited English-language translation of their conversation.

NO ORBÁN TAKEOVER: POLAND’S TVN SET TO COME UNDER POLISH OWNERSHIP

The bidding for Poland’s most influential private channel, TVN, has moved forward, with three Polish business groups advancing to the second round, meaning the network’s future will be under Polish ownership after Donald Tusk’s government intervened to block a potential Hungarian takeover. This article, which was widely quoted in Polish media, builds on our previous Goulash newsletter scoop.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

ORBÁN’S SPIN DOCTOR EXPORTING ILLIBERAL CAMPAIGN KNOW-HOW EYES NEW GIG

Avid Goulash readers will recognize a familiar ingredient in this edition: Árpád Habony, Viktor Orbán’s secretive campaign strategist and spin doctor. I’ve been closely tracking his involvement in foreign elections, and he’s been busy exporting illiberal negative campaigning tactics to political players worldwide. Together with his associates from the government-affiliated Századvég think tank, Habony has pitched his illiberal campaign expertise to Trump’s team; Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS); Slovakia’s Hlas and Smer; Serbia’s pro-regime Hungarian minority party; and Georgia’s pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream. Given this track record, I wasn’t surprised when a Hungarian government-connected source told me that Habony and his team were recently trying to get involved in the far-right Reform UK party’s campaign, with networking efforts reportedly facilitated by the Hungarian Embassy in London. Habony has deep ties to the UK – he allegedly lives (or lived) there; his consultancy Danube Business Consulting Ltd is registered there; and his close friend Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky, now Hungary’s Minister of Defense, previously served as Hungary’s ambassador to London. However, according to my source, Reform UK still prefers working with American strategists and members of Trump’s campaign, making this a tough sell for Habony despite the potential financial rewards. At the same time, Habony’s outreach underscores Fidesz’s shift to the far right – not long ago, the British Conservatives were still Orbán’s semi-official allies in the UK. (Árpád Habony did not respond to my request for comment.)

MAJORITY OF EU MEMBER STATES TAKE A STAND AGAINST HUNGARY’S RUSSIA-STYLE LAW

In our previous issue, I spoke with Reclaim’s Esther Martinez about their campaign to rally EU member states against Viktor Orbán’s Russia-style Sovereignty Protection Act – the same law that created the Sovereignty Protection Office. The key question was how many countries would join the European Commission’s lawsuit against Hungary’s repressive legislation. Now that the deadline for member states to intervene has passed, Reclaim’s latest press release provides a near-final count: “Fourteen EU Member States, Norway and the European Parliament have formally intervened in the European Commission’s lawsuit against Hungary’s anti-NGO law, marking the largest legal mobilization against shrinking democratic space in EU history. Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Estonia, Lithuania, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal have officially requested to join the proceedings, and two more governments are expected to back the case when the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) holds its hearing.” This means that a majority of the 27-member bloc is taking a stand. Esther is still hopeful that Malta and Austria will join, with the latter’s government having been sworn in just two days ago, after the deadline for member states to join. One major omission so far is France. Despite its historical role as a champion of European human rights and freedoms, it has chosen not to take part. France has increasingly played both sides when it comes to Orbán, and French companies have benefited from Hungary’s regime.

BREWING IN THE BOTTOM

By popular demand, we’re bringing back a short and to-the-point portion of bi-weekly analysis of developments in Visegrád region politics. Here’s a quick taste of what’s been brewing in Central Europe, brought to you with the help of VSquare’s Tamara Kaňuchová.

The Czech Republic continues to stand firm against Russia, despite shifts in U.S. policy under Trump. The CEO of the Czech semi-state energy group ČEZ stated that if Gazprom fails to pay the company over a billion crowns owed for breaching their contract and cutting gas supplies in 2022, ČEZ can pursue the debt through legal enforcement. (Like many others, ČEZ argues that Russia initiated its energy war a year before the invasion by gradually reducing gas supplies and driving up prices.) Czech President Petr Pavel was also among the first to respond to the Trump/Vance–Zelensky Oval Office debate, stating that “the time has come to start considering a broad coalition of willing for just peace in Ukraine.” When that nascent coalition convened in London on March 2, Central Europe was represented by Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Poland’s Donald Tusk. However, time appears to be running out for Fiala’s government. A late-February election poll shows opposition leader Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO party leading with 34.7%, followed by the governing SPOLU alliance (18.5%) and its junior coalition partner Mayors and Independents (11.4%). Parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 2025.

Poland is navigating a vastly different domestic political landscape as the presidential race (first round on May 18, second round on June 1) heats up. President Andrzej Duda, a Law and Justice (PiS) holdover, remains the biggest obstacle to Donald Tusk’s government, blocking key policies and even the appointment of new ambassadors. This political paralysis is also one of the main reasons Tusk has been unable to take on a bigger role in European politics. But this could come to an end soon. The race, initially expected to be dominated by Tusk’s candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, with only a modest challenge from PiS-backed Karol Nawrocki, has taken an unexpected turn. Since January, Sławomir Mentzen, co-chair of the far-right/libertarian Confederation (Konfederacja) party, has been surging in popularity. A February 25-26 SW Research/Wprost poll was the first to put him in second place (Trzaskowski 33.6%, Mentzen 18.9%, Nawrocki 16.5%). Despite this shake-up, Tusk’s ally remains the favorite to win the second round, especially as PiS’s alignment with Trump and renewed anti-Ukrainian rhetoric do not sit well with the Polish electorate. Meanwhile, another government-aligned candidate, Szymon Hołownia, Marshall of the Sejm, continues to struggle in the polls (4-8%), though he remains active in the campaign, even visiting Bratislava and Győr (Hungary) on February 26.

Illiberalism in Hungary is also on the backfoot in the polls. A unique Iránytű poll, conducted over three months (December 1, 2024 – February 28, 2025) with a large sample of 6,600 respondents, shows Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz-KDNP at 39%, trailing Péter Magyar’s TISZA at 44%. The data indicates that approximately 250,000 voters have switched from Fidesz to TISZA. Hungary’s national day, March 15, could serve as a major test of momentum. Péter Magyar is hoping to organize his largest rally to date, now bolstered by his most significant political defector yet: Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi, the former chief of staff of the Hungarian Armed Forces, who – like Magyar – broke ranks with Orbán and joined the opposition movement. Meanwhile, Orbán has firmly aligned himself with the Trump–Putin axis, not only by instructing Hungarian diplomats at the UN to vote against Ukraine – and against the EU’s resolution – but also by immediately responding to the Trump/Vance–Zelensky debate with a letter to the European Council, in which he pledged to block any joint EU support for Ukraine and called for direct peace talks with Russia – a document I have obtained.

Slovakia’s leaders are outpacing even Orbán in their overtures to Moscow, meeting Russian officials that even Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, wouldn’t dare shake hands with. Case in point: Smer vice-chairman and MEP Ľuboš Blaha’s March 5 meeting and photo op with Russian spy chief Sergey Naryshkin – yes, seriously. It’s no surprise that Robert Fico, reacting to Zelensky’s Oval Office meeting, immediately declared once again that “Slovakia will not support Ukraine financially or militarily to continue the war” – a stance he has repeated many times. Meanwhile, his government’s pro-Kremlin rhetoric is resonating with parts of the Slovak public. A recent NMS Market Research poll shows that only 23% of Slovaks trust Zelensky, while 28% trust Putin. (By contrast, in the Czech Republic, 32% trust Zelensky, while only 11% trust Putin.) On the domestic front, three February polls (NMS, AKO, Focus) show the opposition Progressive Slovakia only slightly ahead of Fico’s Smer (24-22% vs. 22-21%). However, should an early election take place, Fico could lose – or at least have his chances of staying in power depend on the support of the neo-fascist Republika party.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

LAYOVER IN DELHI: HOW DOES RUSSIA SMUGGLE? FRONTSTORY.PL, as part of an international investigation by Investigate Europe, reveals how Russia is still able to keep its airlines running and sustain a fleet of around 1,000, mostly Western-made passenger aircraft despite sanctions. (Text in Polish and English.)

FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE – AND KREMLIN MONEY: CZECH INFLUENCER FUNDED BY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. Czech blogger Olga Vlasova, who moved to Russia in 2022 and promotes a pro-Kremlin narrative through her Telegram channel and TikTok account, is secretly funded by the Russian state-owned, sanctioned media holding Rossiya Segodnya, Investigace.cz reveals. (Text in Czech.)

GET-OUT-OF-JAIL-FREE CARD FOR FOREIGN NATIONALITY OFFENDERS OPENED HUNGARY’S DOORS TO HUMAN TRAFFICKING. Átátszó interviewed Hungarians who were involved with a foreign-led human trafficking organization, revealing how smuggling migrants through Hungary remains a thriving business. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

PATIENTS ENTERED THE RENOWNED HOSPITAL WITH HOPE, LEFT HUMILIATED. After exposing the severe hospital-acquired infections situation in 2023, Direkt36’s new investigation reveals how patients’ rights and dignity are violated in Hungary’s state-run health care system. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 38th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM