Goulash: Kremlin Intel Ops Fuel Hungary–Ukraine Feud; Trump Invites Fico to Sign $15B Deal

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

GOOGLE AND META ACCEPTED DARK MONEY FOR ADS TARGETING UKRAINE AND THE HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION

A newly formed Hungarian company with ties to Viktor Orbán’s government is spending far more than its declared income to run smear campaigns against opposition leader Péter Magyar and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—without revealing its funding sources. The campaign includes billboards across Hungary portraying Magyar and Zelensky as close allies, and an animated video depicting them as trash. While smear campaigns by government-linked entities with opaque funding are nothing new in Hungary, what makes this case internationally relevant is, as Átlátszó’s Zalán Zubor uncovered, its heavy online presence. The campaign is running widely on YouTube and Facebook, meaning Google and Meta are profiting from Hungarian dark money used to finance character assassination against both Ukraine’s president and Hungary’s opposition leader. Read the full story here.

CENTRAL EUROPE AT A CROSSROADS: INSIGHTS FROM GLOBSEC TRENDS 2025 WITH KATARÍNA KLINGOVÁ

For anyone following the shifting political and societal dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe, I recommend Tamara Kánuchová’s interview with GLOBSEC’s Katarína Klingová. Based on the findings of the GLOBSEC Trends 2025 report, the conversation offers insights into public attitudes across the region—focusing on perceptions of security threats and foreign influence. Klingová explains why the Czech Republic stands out with high media trust and low susceptibility to conspiracies, and how Hungary and Slovakia, despite adopting laws targeting civil society, still show strong public support for NGOs. The interview also sheds light on how citizens rank strategic allies: Germany and the U.S. remain top partners, while China and Russia are increasingly seen as threats. If you want a clear, data-driven look at where the region is heading, this piece is well worth your time. (And you can find the full report here.)

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

TRUMP REWARDS FICO WITH WHITE HOUSE INVITATION FOR NUCLEAR AGREEMENT

As I reported on social media a few days ago, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has been invited to the White House, according to a well-connected source tracking Central Europe–U.S. relations. Fico would become the first prime minister from a Visegrád region country—and the second from Central Europe after Germany’s Friedrich Merz—to officially visit the Trump 2.0 White House. (Viktor Orbán met Trump in Mar-a-Lago last December, but that was before Trump took office again.) Fico’s reward, however, comes at a high price: according to the source, he’s expected to sign an intergovernmental agreement with Trump paving the way for a subsequent $12–15 billion nuclear power plant deal—to be awarded without competition to U.S. nuclear giant Westinghouse. Since my initial tweet, two additional sources have confirmed Trump’s invitation to Fico, including one who noted that Slovak diplomats in Washington, D.C., are expecting Fico’s visit. The timing remains unclear, but it could happen soon. The U.S. Embassy in Bratislava told me they are still working on the agreement.

The news is already making waves. Fico’s opposition—long accusing him of steering Slovakia away from NATO and into Russia’s orbit—now finds itself in a bind: the prime minister will be shaking hands with Trump and awarding a major deal to a U.S. company, not to Russia’s Rosatom, as Viktor Orbán did in 2014. Despite Fico’s surprise visit to the Kremlin last year and his close associates’ ties to Russian GRU-linked figures (see our previous investigation), his government is now spending significant funds on U.S. hardware—both civilian and military. (See the earlier Goulash issue on V4 defense spending, which notes Slovakia’s purchase of American weapons, including Black Hawk helicopters.) While nuclear energy remains relatively popular or at least accepted in Slovakia, the Westinghouse project is already raising eyebrows in neighboring Austria, where it is highly unpopular. The proposed plant site would be just 60 kilometers from the Austrian border. Austria is already suing Hungary over its Paks II nuclear project, citing environmental concerns—and may now turn its attention to Slovakia.

NEW V4 PRESIDENCY, BUT NO TOP-LEVEL MEETING IN SIGHT

In July, Hungary assumed the year-long rotating presidency of the Visegrád Four (V4), but has already sent discourteous signals to its partners by sharing its presidency agenda and program with considerable delay. The official draft schedule, which I obtained, reflects the continued disintegration and growing political irrelevance of the V4. No prime ministerial-level meeting is planned—unsurprising, as Polish PM Donald Tusk is unlikely to visit Orbán’s Hungary. Even the details of a possible presidential summit remain vague; the draft merely notes it as “TBC” (to be confirmed). Such a meeting would hinge on whether Czech President Petr Pavel is willing to attend. According to a source close to the Czech presidential office, it’s a possibility, but no internal discussions have taken place yet. A meeting of parliamentary speakers is scheduled for November 13–14, 2025, on the sidelines of a broader South-Eastern European gathering, with another planned for February/March 2026.

Notably, current plans were drafted with the assumption that Orbán will be reelected in April 2026. If the opposition wins, the dynamics would shift dramatically. Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party, has already indicated that a Tisza-led government’s prime minister would first pay visits to Warsaw, Vienna, and Brussels—signaling a stark departure from Orbán’s foreign policy direction. Meanwhile, Orbán recently told an interviewer that he just needs “a little more time”—likely referring to staying in power—and added: “If we persist, we can re-establish the V4, and we have a good chance of doing so in the next year.” In other words, he’s betting on the return of his Czech ally Andrej Babiš and the downfall of Donald Tusk’s Polish government.

ORBÁN GOV’T-PAID POLLSTER FINDS 10-POINT OPPOSITION LEAD, KEEPS RESULTS UNDER WRAPS

While Tusk’s recently reshuffled government is indeed still struggling, the political outlook for Viktor Orbán’s government also remains bleak. A source connected to the Hungarian government revealed to me that one of the Orbán administration’s main pollsters conducted a survey in early summer showing Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party leading Fidesz by 10 points—but chose not to publish the results. While this gap is smaller than in recent independent polls, which show a 15- to 18-point lead for Magyar, no government-commissioned poll or pollster paid by the Hungarian government has released any survey indicating that Magyar is ahead. The practice of pro-government pollsters either going silent or using questionable methodologies that diverge from independent standards—allowing them to present Orbán as leading—has been widely reported in Hungary. A growing concern is that if the Orbán government and its proxies normalize manipulating polls, what would stop them from trying to adjust the actual election results—that is, cheat—to match these doctored numbers?

KREMLIN USES FAKE TRANSCARPATHIAN HUNGARIANS TO INCITE UNREST—POLISH FAR-RIGHT JOINS IN

Shortly before Hungarian-Ukrainian relations hit a new low over the death of an ethnic Hungarian man from Transcarpathia reportedly conscripted into the Ukrainian army and beaten to death (a claim made by Viktor Orbán and his government and denied by Ukrainian authorities), a Russian disinformation campaign was launched on social media to inflame ethnic tensions between Hungarians and Ukrainians. My colleague, journalist and OSINT researcher Nikita Khava, helped uncover the operation; what follows is based on our joint findings.

On June 21, a pro-Russian Telegram channel called Otryad Kovpaka, with 140,000 followers, posted a video featuring masked men claiming to be ethnic Hungarians from Transcarpathia. Standing in front of a Hungarian flag, they urged their Hungarian “compatriots” to set fire to Ukrainian government buildings, including military recruitment offices, and to call for unification with Hungary. They also gave verbal instructions and showed how to make Molotov cocktails. The video reached 21,000 views. Named after 1940s Soviet partisan leader Sydir Kovpak, Otryad Kovpaka calls itself a “partisan-style intelligence source.” It claims to gather and transmit intelligence to the Russian military and engage in psychological warfare. The channel routinely posts alleged intel on sabotage operations, Ukrainian military sites, recruitment centers, and railway hubs, urging followers to submit reports. It says it has forwarded thousands of “operational data points” to Russian command—though none of these claims are independently verified. An analysis by FIMI concludes the channel operates as part of Russia’s disinformation network. According to a Correctiv report, it also repurposes Russian-language content and relays it directly to German and other language platforms. A leading Azeri news site links the Otryad Kovpaka channel to Kremlin ideologue Alexander Dugin’s network. The channel has previously been debunked multiple times for spreading hoaxes aimed at undermining Ukraine.

Zkaarpatty24 analyzed the video depicting the alleged Hungarians who call for a revolt against Ukraine, noting the masked men tried to speak formal Ukrainian but lacked the distinctive Transcarpathian accent common in the region. They didn’t speak a word of Hungarian, while a faint Russian accent could be heard. The outlet added that the video was barely shared on Hungarian-language social media but quickly spread on pro-Russian Telegram and VKontakte channels. Between June 21–22, the video was reposted by seven smaller Telegram channels and a few VK users. According to Tgstat (a tool for Telegram analytics), it was shared 29 times and reached nearly 155,000 views in two days. The largest number of views and reposts came from a Kremlin-aligned propaganda channel called Sheikh Tamir. 

While the video failed to gain traction in Hungarian social media, it surfaced in Poland on June 28. Among the first to share it was Piotr Panasiuk, a commentator and pro-Russian Polish politician. He co-founded the Safe Poland (Bezpieczna Polska) party, which advocates for “normalizing relations with Russia and Belarus.” He also serves as vice president of the Polish Anti-War Movement (Polski Ruch Antywojenny), which opposes military aid to Ukraine. In February 2024, Panasiuk supported Polish farmers blocking the Ukrainian border and reported on it via Twitter. A week and a half later, he traveled to Moscow to attend the International Russophile Movement forum, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also spoke. A smaller anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian Polish channel called PodlaskiByk also re-shared the video from Panasiuk’s channel, just like a slightly larger one named Czas Honoru.

UKRAINIAN, HUNGARIAN AUTHORITIES SUSPECT RUSSIA BEHIND ANTI-HUNGARIAN ARSON AND GRAFFITI IN TRANSCARPATHIA

Talking about false-flag operations: Russian intelligence services are also suspected of orchestrating an arson attack and anti-Hungarian graffiti in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region earlier in July—an incident Hungary’s pro-Kremlin government quickly exploited against Ukraine. I spoke with Hungarian and Ukrainian officials to piece together the attack, which mirrors earlier Russian false-flag ops aimed at fueling ethnic tensions. (See VSquare’s prior investigations into a similar 2018 arson involving Polish and German pro-Kremlin operatives posing as Ukrainian nationalists.) Alongside Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Hungary’s Information Office (IH) is also investigating. Sources say the SBU likely had prior intel about planned Russian provocations in the village of Palad’-Komarivtsi (Palágykomoróc), near the Slovak border and Uzhhorod (Ungvár). This may explain why SBU and local police were already guarding the village’s access roads and protecting the Roman Catholic and Reformed churches—possibly prompting the attacker to target the Greek Catholic church instead, which isn’t the main house of worship for the Hungarian community.

On the evening of July 16, that church was briefly set on fire and defaced with anti-Hungarian graffiti written in flawed Cyrillic. The damage was minor: the fire was quickly put out and the graffiti removed. Yet by the next morning, a photo taken before firefighters arrived—featuring the slogan “put the Hungarians on a knife’s edge”—appeared on Viktor Orbán’s Facebook page and in Mandiner, a government-controlled propaganda outlet. Orbán used the image to intensify his anti-Ukraine messaging. Given the suspicious timing of the photo, respected Russia expert András Rácz raised the possibility that the attacker—or the mastermind—may have ties to the Hungarian government. A further red flag: the Cyrillic was poorly written, suggesting the perpetrator couldn’t fluently write in either Ukrainian or Russian. The Hungarian government denied any connection or contact with the attacker. Still, how did the photo reach Orbán’s team—who posted it the next morning? A site close to the Transcarpathian Hungarian Cultural Association (KMKSZ) reported that during the firefighting, authorities told a cameraman not to film. However, many locals had gathered—one may have taken the photo. In this more charitable view, the image could’ve reached Orbán via KMKSZ and its exiled leader, László Brenzovics, now an advisor to Orbán on Ukrainian affairs. (Brenzovics fled Ukraine after facing corruption charges.)

Even so, that doesn’t explain why Orbán blamed Ukraine instead of Russia. A source close to the Hungarian government said even KMKSZ leadership suspected a Russian false-flag from the start. Yet Orbán went ahead and publicly accused Ukrainian nationalists. Meanwhile, just days earlier, on July 11, Ukrainian authorities exposed another sabotage attempt in Transcarpathia: a 22-year-old, recruited by Russian intelligence via social media, was instructed to burn a logistics site and disable railway systems. He recorded a video to confirm the act for his Russian handlers. In the church case, a 28-year-old suspect was swiftly arrested, though no details have been made public. Still, my sources say both Ukrainian and Hungarian authorities strongly suspect Russian involvement, given the recurring pattern of recruiting locals for paid sabotage missions via Telegram. (See this earlier investigation into similar Russian sabotage cases here.)

HANO ACTED SOLO? HACKER TARGETING ORBÁN-CRITICAL MEDIA CAUGHT

Hungarian authorities recently uncovered another covert operation—this time targeting independent media sites with DDoS attacks. Since April 2023, at least 40 Hungarian news sites, mostly critical of Viktor Orbán’s government, have been hit. Even the Vienna-based International Press Institute’s website was attacked after calling for an investigation. After more than two years, police raided the Budapest home of a 23-year-old Hungarian hacker known as Hano and arrested him on July 9 for suspected cybercrime. He was later released, but authorities said seized devices contained clear evidence of the attacks. Austrian police are cooperating in the case. According to a source familiar with the investigation, the hacker—named Kevin K.—is believed to have acted alone. Hungarian police have found no evidence that he belonged to a group or acted on behalf of anyone else. The source told me that Hano/Kevin K. allegedly bought DDoS attack services on the dark web, mostly targeting systems that were technically easy to breach. Despite the fact that many of the targets were government-critical outlets, investigators have so far found no political connections. Hungarian police remain tight-lipped and declined to respond to my official request for comment, including questions about potential political motives.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

ONE HELICOPTER, TWO COUNTRIES. STRNAD’S BLACK HAWK IS, ACCORDING TO THE CONTRACT, ON STANDBY IN BOTH SLOVAKIA AND CZECHIA. The Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak’s (ICJK) article explains how Slovakia is renting a Black Hawk helicopter from a Strnad-linked company to fight forest fires with EU funds, but questions have arisen over the helicopter’s dual deployment in both Slovakia and Czechia. (Text in Slovak.) 

MOBY DICK: HEAD OF MASSIVE CAROUSEL FRAUD SCHEME ARRESTED. HE OWNED SEVERAL COMPANIES AND PROPERTIES IN PRAGUE. Belgian national Rodolphe Ballaera, a key figure in a €640 million EU-wide tax carousel fraud, was arrested in Italy after months on the run; he owns properties and ran involved firms in Prague. (Text in Czech.)

WHILE THE PUBLIC WATER NETWORK IS FALLING APART, GOVERNMENT SPENDS BILLIONS TO SUPPLY WATER TO BATTERY FACTORIES. Átlátszó’s article shows how the Orbán government prioritizes supplying water to the polluting battery industry over residential needs, even as water shortages become a serious problem in Hungary. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

HUNGARY SPENT €80,000 ON PRESIDENT NOVÁK’S WARDROBE. SHE KEPT IT AFTER RESIGNING. Our Direkt36 investigation reveals how Hungary’s scandal-ridden former president continues to benefit from public funds—often in unexpected ways. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 47th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

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SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM