Goulash: Zelensky asks for Orbán’s help; Trump-Vance ticket thrills Budapest

WHY THE EU FAILS TO DELIVER ON ARMS PLEDGES TO UKRAINE

Despite the European Commission’s claims that the EU will be able to produce 1.4 to 1.7 million rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition by the end of 2024 to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s aggression, our new investigation finds that actual production is estimated to be closer to 600,000 rounds. Why? Insufficient factory capacity, a shortage of raw materials, and inadequate financial resources all play a significant part. Our international investigation was led by the Netherlands-based The Investigative Desk, and this regional round-up by VSquare is based on original stories from our regional partner centers, which examined the state of ammunition production in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Hungary is notably absent due to its refusal to support military aid to Ukraine. To understand one of the most crucial problems facing the Ukrainian army, I highly recommend this piece.

ORBÁN’S SALARY TOPS EU IN COMPARISON TO AVERAGE GROSS INCOME

For a politician who loves to paint himself as a man of the people and lash out at the out-of-touch elites, Viktor Orbán sure seems far removed from the average citizen when it comes to his salary. Among EU heads of government, Hungary’s leader receives the highest pay relative to the country’s average gross salary. This year, Orbán’s monthly salary has increased to a gross €16,000 (HUF 6.3 million), which is 9.5 times what an average Hungarian earns. Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Czech Republic’s Petr Fiala are the second and third highest-paid relative to their citizens. In absolute terms, Orbán earns twice as much as the Spanish Prime Minister and three times as much as the Bulgarian Prime Minister. For a detailed breakdown and more insights into EU leaders’ salaries, check out Atlatszo.hu’s article by Dávid Háberman and Krisztián Szabó, which is a great piece of data journalism.

FROM KYIV TO RIGA: RUSSIAN SABOTAGE OPERATIONS IN THE BALTICS

An unknown young man steps out of a black car and accidentally drops a folded piece of paper on a Latvian housewife’s driveway. It turns out to be an instruction manual for a Russian agent on how to surveil a nearby military air base. This real-life thriller, brought to you by Re:Baltica’s Inga Spriņģe and Delfi Estonia’s Holger Roonemaa, is a concrete example of how Russian intelligence recruits people within the European Union to carry out acts of sabotage and various violent activities. Make sure you read it here.

FUR FROM PUTIN: POLISH BUSINESSMAN IN CONTROL OF A MINK FARM IN RUSSIA

While a Polish fur tycoon and lobbyist organizes high-profile anti-EU demonstrations in Poland and Brussels, his brother quietly manages a mink farm in Russia, importing animal pelts worth millions from the Kaliningrad region – or, at least, that’s what he was doing before international sanctions put a kink in their business. In a particularly hairy situation, one of the Wójcik brothers was recently detained by the FSB for allegedly trying to bribe a Russian agency to allow fur shipments to Asia. Read our Polish sister site Frontstory.pl’s latest “furry-tale” here (that was the last pun, I promise).

ORBÁN’S MEETING WITH PUTIN WAS PLOTTED BEHIND EU, NATO ALLIES’ BACK

In early July, I was the first to break the news about Viktor Orbán’s surprise trip to Moscow and his meeting with Vladimir Putin. It soon became clear that Orbán had intentionally kept his plans under wraps, hiding his intentions from the EU’s leadership as well as from member states. In this story, I quoted stunned foreign diplomats and government officials reacting to the news, and I also predicted the Hungarian Prime Minister’s subsequent meeting with Trump. Read it here, and keep on scrolling to our scoop section for updates on what happened on Orbán’s trips.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

ORBÁN’S MOSCOW VISIT FOLLOWED BY RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION OPERATION ALLEGING AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

True to form, the Kremlin’s appreciation of Orbán’s Kremlin visit – a dramatic break from the longstanding EU policy of boycotting Putin that was widely condemned as appeasement by many EU leaders – didn’t stop Russian intelligence from doing their usual thing. A couple of days ago, my friend Daniel Iriarte, a great foreign affairs journalist from El Confidencial, sent me a link to bizarre posts on Spanish and French language Telegram channels disseminating Kremlin propaganda. These posts alleged that Ukrainian intelligence tried to plant a bomb on Orbán’s car to kill him just before he embarked on his flight to Moscow. However, Hungary’s foreign intelligence service, the Information Office, supposedly foiled the plot. The Telegram channels cited the Hungarian far-right, pro-Orbán weekly Demokrata as their source. However, when I searched for the original article, I discovered that someone had actually copied the appearance of Demokrata’s site, demokrata.hu, and published this sensational article on July 14 (article archived here) on a different domain, demokrata.net (domain archived here).

“It’s a complete hoax, it looks suspicious, it’s a fake, there was no assassination,” the real Demokrata’s editor-in-chief told another pro-Orbán extremist website, which added the following commentary: “Some people think it’s a good joke to stir trouble after the assassination attempts against Fico and Trump.” When I told Daniel Iriarte about this, he instantly said, “It’s Doppelgänger again, it seems.” Doppelgänger is a Russian online cyber operation that regularly uses fake clones of legitimate news sites to spread anti-Ukrainian disinformation (for more, check Correctiv’s fresh story, a joint investigation with VSquare and investigace.cz). They also have a bot network that disseminates the content, as has been seen in Latvia. Experts have linked Doppelgänger to the APT28 hacking group, which is associated with the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence. In this particular case, a Hungarian official told me that the assassination attempt against Orbán is entirely fake news and added that Hungarian security agencies suspect Russia behind this disinformation. A Ukrainian official dealing with security issues said the same: “It really has all the signs of a Russian psychological operation.”

ZELENSKY ASKED ORBÁN TO FACILITATE A PHONE CALL WITH TRUMP

More details about Orbán’s self-proclaimed “peace mission” tour – the surprise visits to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Mar-a-Lago, among others – are starting to surface. For example, a well-connected source involved in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations told me that Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky allegedly asked Orbán during their July 2 meeting in Kyiv to help arrange a call with former US president and current Republican candidate Donald Trump. A second source, this one with direct knowledge of that Kyiv meeting, didn’t deny it, saying that “maybe such a thing happened.” Well, the timeline shows Orbán subsequently meeting Trump on July 11, and Zelensky having a phone call with Trump on July 19. Still, it’s unclear who convinced Trump to take that call, as other intermediaries like former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson or Polish President Andrzej Duda are also assisting Zelensky in lobbying Trump, the source involved in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations added. Meanwhile, multiple Central European experts unanimously found such a request from Zelensky to Orbán highly plausible. “It would make sense since Zelensky is now seriously looking for access to Trump. And Orbán has this trump card,” a Czech expert noted (and I swear the pun was theirs, not mine).

ORBÁN UNDERLINGS’ CAREERS MAY DEPEND ON TRUMP’S WIN OR DEFEAT

Orbán’s big bet on a Trump presidency may even impact Hungarian power dynamics and potentially lead to a cabinet reshuffle, according to multiple government-connected sources I’ve talked to in recent weeks. “The entire relationship with US Republicans and Trump is managed by Balázs Orbán,” a Hungarian government official explained, referring to Viktor Orbán’s political director, who is not related to the prime minister. Balázs Orbán, who also de facto leads the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), an important lobbying vehicle that courts US Republicans and far-right pundits such as Tucker Carlson, could see his influence wane if Trump loses, but might even be promoted to foreign minister if Trump wins, another source connected to the foreign ministry added. Newly emerged trust issues with Gergely Gulyás, the current head of the Prime Minister’s Office, could further influence this reshuffle. Gulyás’s problems stem from his former close friendship with Péter Magyar, who recently broke with the ruling Fidesz party, and emerged as the prime minister’s main challenger. 

According to these sources, if Gulyás is eventually dismissed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó is well-positioned to replace him. Gulyás, who also hosts the Orbán government’s weekly press conference, is seen as underperforming in this role. Szijjártó, on the other hand, began his career as the Fidesz party’s spokesperson and appears much more confident when speaking to the press. In this scenario, Szijjártó’s current ministry might be split, with Balázs Orbán potentially taking on the foreign affairs portfolio and giving it a more pro-US – albeit very partisan – facelift. Now, for a personal disclosure: Although I have no recollection of him from those years, Balázs Orbán and I attended the same high school in downtown Budapest and were in the same grade, but in different classes. As Kurt Vonnegut once wrote, “True terror is to wake up one morning and realize that your high school class is running the country.” Luckily, as I mentioned, Orbán and I were not in the same class, technically.

TRUMP’S RUNNING MATE RETALIATES AGAINST US CAREER DIPLOMAT FOR CRITICIZING THE MEDIA SITUATION IN HUNGARY

Trump’s decision to choose Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate thrilled the Orbán government, as it signaled that their substantial investment in infiltrating Republican circles is finally paying off. As highlighted in Ishaan Tharoor’s piece in The Washington Post on Vance’s admiration for Orbán, the Hungarian government is likely to have a strong ally in a potential second Trump administration. However, I was told that JD Vance is already acting in Orbán’s interests on a very specific issue. Another Post story by national security reporter John Hudson revealed how and why Vance has been holding up the nomination of dozens of US diplomats, and it’s primarily due to ideological differences with the Biden administration. Eventually, he allowed these nominations to proceed, but continued to block the confirmation of career diplomat David Kostelancik, Biden’s nominee for US Ambassador to Albania. Following Hudson’s article, two US sources with knowledge of Vance’s real issue – something the senator has not disclosed publicly – told me that he is blocking Kostelancik due to a speech the diplomat gave as US chargé d’affaires in Hungary in October 2017. 

In his speech to the Hungarian Association of Journalists, Kostelancik openly discussed how Hungarian independent media outlets “face pressure and intimidation” and stated that “the United States unequivocally condemns any attempt to intimidate or silence journalists.” The Hungarian government, expecting a swift reset of relations under the Trump administration, reacted strongly to Kostelancik’s remarks, making a significant issue of the speech and summoning him to the Hungarian foreign ministry. Seven years later, few people remember this diplomatic incident, but apparently, the Orbán-loving junior senator from Ohio does. How is this possible? My sources allege that the Orbán government’s successful lobbying efforts are behind Vance’s obstruction of Kostelancik’s nomination. In their view (and mine), this episode reveals the vengeful nature of the Orbán government and how easily they can undermine the current US administration by influencing their Republican allies. (Vance’s office didn’t respond to my request for comment.)

IMPASSE OVER POLISH AMBASSADORS

It’s not only US ambassadorial nominees who face problems these days. In Poland, the conflict between the government and President Andrzej Duda’s office over changing ambassadors has escalated to the point where a deal is no longer possible, reports VSquare editor-in-chief Anna Gielewska. According to her source close to the Polish MFA, candidates whom right-wing President Duda does not approve will assume their posts in August only as chargés d’affaires (we revealed this scenario back in February.) This includes Bogdan Klich, whom Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski hopes to appoint as the ambassador to Washington once Duda leaves office next year (assuming that a more government-friendly politician wins the next presidential election). Duda recently attacked Klich for serving as Minister of Defense during the 2010 Smoleńsk plane crash, stating on right-wing TV Republica, “I will never sign this ambassadorial nomination.” Furthermore, the Law and Justice-appointed current Polish ambassador to the US, Marek Magierowski, rejected a proposal to take over the embassy in Argentina and instead requested nearly one million PLN in severance from the Polish MFA, triggering the latest scandal in Polish media. 

Other appointees in question include Ryszard Schnepf, planned as ambassador to Rome; Jacek Rostowski, as ambassador to the OSCE in Paris; and Elżbieta Bieńkowska, as ambassador to Slovenia. According to Anna’s source close to the Polish MFA, the next few weeks will be particularly tense. “The current diplomats should return to Poland soon, and new ones should go to their posts in August. We will see in what official capacity,” the source said. The initial agreement between Donald Tusk’s government and the president was that Duda’s four key people would remain in their posts: Jakub Kumoch, Polish Ambassador to China; Krzysztof Szczerski, Polish Permanent Representative to the UN; Paweł Soloch, Ambassador to Romania; and Adam Kwiatkowski, Ambassador to the Vatican. Magierowski was to be offered a new post. “Sikorski delivered his part of the deal, but Duda did not. He could have had four of his people in position, but then he suddenly wanted 15,” the source summarized. Therefore, it is also unclear what will happen with the remaining “presidential four” now that the deal has fallen apart.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

SLOVAKIA: THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS AGAINST JOURNALISTS IS GROWING. The Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak’s (ICJK) Safe.journalism project recorded 48 such incidents in the first half of 2024, a big increase over last year. (Text in Slovak.)

POLAND’S FOSTER CARE COLLAPSING. Institutions of the Polish state either don’t collect, exchange or reveal data on violence and abuse against children in foster care, this new joint investigation published on Frontstory.pl finds. (Text in Polish.)

HOW THE SMUGGLING NETWORK WORKS ON TELEGRAM. For several months, investigace.cz has been monitoring the activities of a closed Telegram channel that is used to recruit and coordinate the work of drivers illegally transporting Middle Eastern migrants from the border states of the European Union. (Text in Czech.)

EX-WIFE OF ORBÁN’S CHIEF OF STAFF IS STILL MAKING HUGE BUSINESS SUCCESSES WITH HER TABLOID NEWS SITE. The publisher behind Top World News, a Hungarian tabloid news site partly owned by Orbán minister Antal Rogán’s ex-wife, is still making unrealistically huge profits and is full of government advertisements, Direkt36’s research finds. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

HUNGARY SEES STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF FEMALE MAYORS. Finally, some good news: Atlatszo.hu’s analysis finds that about a quarter of all mayors in Hungary will be female after the country’s local elections. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 24th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving.

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM