Goulash: Orbán Losing in His Own Secret Poll; Babiš’s Government Under Fire; Russian Sect in Poland

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

A RUSSIAN ESOTERIC SECT GOES WEST—WITH A PUTINIST RUNNING ITS HUB IN POLAND

Frontstory.pl traces how a Russian esoteric movement inspired by The Ringing Cedars of Russia—a mix of ecology, conspiracy, and authoritarian ideas embraced by Putin’s Kremlin—has quietly been planting “ancestral estates” across Poland and beyond. On the surface, it looks like harmless spiritual gardening and off-grid living. Dig deeper, however, and you find pro-Russian, anti-democratic currents, as well as antisemitic and xenophobic strands woven into its beliefs. It’s a strange, unsettling story of how fringe ideology can seep into real communities—and why authorities in Central Europe might want to pay attention. Read it on VSquare.

BLACKMAIL ALLEGATIONS AND A MILLION SIGNATURES: BABIŠ’S GOVERNMENT ALREADY UNDER FIRE

Tamara Kaňuchová’s analysis shows how Andrej Babiš’s new coalition is barely two months old and already facing mass protests and a revived Million Moments movement backing President Petr Pavel. The spark was leaked text messages from Foreign Minister Petr Macinka pressuring Pavel over a ministerial appointment—now under police scrutiny and widely described as possible blackmail. Tens of thousands filled central Prague, and the pro-Pavel petition is racing toward a million signatures as the government stumbles out of the gate. Read it here.

PROSTITUTION AND DRUG ABUSE: HOW HUNGARY IS FAILING CHILDREN IN STATE CARE

Átlátszó’s investigation digs into shocking stories of children in Hungarian care homes who end up prey to pimps, drug abuse, and exploitation because the system meant to protect them simply isn’t doing its job. It’s heartbreaking, enraging, and an essential read on how deep the child-protection crisis really runs. The issue has been a constant theme in Hungarian political debates for more than half a year. Check the Hungarian version on Átlátszó, and the English translation on VSquare. (Direkt36 also has an investigation, here.)

WHEN YOUR CLONE CALLS: HOW AI VOICE FRAUD BECAME A BILLION-DOLLAR INDUSTRY

Investigace.cz’s Josef Šlerka explains how scammers now use AI to clone voices, impersonate loved ones in distress, and steal money—turning once-futuristic tech into a booming, billion-dollar fraud industry. A chilling read—find it here.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

PROPAGANDA VS. INTERNAL POLLS: THE REAL STATE OF THE HUNGARIAN ELECTION RACE

As Hungary’s April 12 election approaches, and reliable independent polls still put the opposition TISZA 10–16 points ahead, Viktor Orbán’s camp is sending mixed signals. Government-funded pollsters—including outfits that have never conducted surveys before—are suddenly publishing numbers showing the ruling Fidesz comfortably ahead, a message amplified by government propaganda claiming a near-certain victory. That narrative, however, is contradicted by Orbán himself and his de facto “running mate,” János Lázár, now widely seen as a possible heir, who have been warning mayors and activists that they need to work harder and that the race could be close. Hungarian journalist Pál Dániel Rényi recently echoed this picture in an insider take on the Fidesz campaign, citing an internal poll that actually puts TISZA ahead of Fidesz beyond the margin of error. (Read his excellent piece in Hungarian on 444.hu, here.)

Meanwhile, I’ve obtained new information about non-public numbers suggesting that Orbán’s party is seriously struggling. While my source could not specify exactly when the fieldwork was conducted, a recent internal poll allegedly put TISZA at 41 percent and Fidesz at 31 percent among the total population—an even wider gap than those measured by independent pollsters such as Medián (40–33) or the 21 Research Institute (35–28). According to my source, these internal figures were shown to some local Fidesz candidates to keep them mobilized and prevent the complacency encouraged by official messaging. At the same time, several government-linked figures argue that if Fidesz can narrow the gap to around three or four points, structural features of Hungary’s electoral system—from gerrymandering to diaspora votes—could still deliver Orbán a parliamentary majority even if TISZA wins more votes overall.

At this point, however, that sounds more like wishful thinking—especially given how Fidesz’s campaign has been marred by gaffes, scandals, and persistent inconsistencies.

ORBÁN DESPERATE FOR TRUMP OR VANCE TO VISIT BUDAPEST AND BOOST HIS REELECTION CHANCES

While the Hungarian government is floating the possibility of Donald Trump visiting Budapest to endorse Viktor Orbán and boost his campaign, Western diplomats and government-connected sources in the city say the far more realistic US guest is JD Vance, not Trump. Vance—much like Trump before him—has long been courted by Orbán’s lobbying network, and sources familiar with the talks say efforts to bring him to Budapest are already underway for a long time. This is hardly new: more than a year ago, I reported that while Orbán’s camp already floated far-fetched plans for a Trump visit in 2026, they were simultaneously working on Vance as a Plan B, helped by US right-wing figures close to the vice president who are already based in Budapest and on Orbán’s payroll. Against this backdrop, the public hype around Donald Trump looks increasingly strained. Orbán and the government-funded organizers of CPAC Hungary have spent weeks openly talking about inviting Trump to Budapest, claiming his team is “looking for dates,” despite there being no confirmed visit. According to multiple sources, the original idea was to announce Trump’s arrival back in January—something that never materialized.

Now the government-friendly narrative suggests Trump may—or may not—appear at CPAC Hungary on March 21. Diplomats see this public ambiguity as highly unusual and risky, both diplomatically and politically: floating a high-profile visit without securing it first is not how serious diplomacy or a serious campaign usually operate. Several diplomats told me they see little chance of Trump coming to Hungary at all—unless the long-dormant idea of a Budapest Trump–Putin meeting were suddenly revived. In a recent speech, Orbán said, “There have been discussions about this among us… There is an agreement that the peace summit will be held in Budapest.” He then added, somewhat arrogantly, that “the US president perhaps owes us the gesture of coming to Hungary and greeting the Hungarians… It’s really expected of him.” However, Trump’s track record points elsewhere. His only known 2026 European commitments so far are Davos and the G7 summit in France in June, and during his presidency he made just one visit to a former Eastern Bloc country: Poland, in 2017. 

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

If you like our scoops and stories, here are some more articles from our partners!

HATRED TOWARD LGBTI+ PEOPLE IN SLOVAKIA IS SPREAD BY THE CHURCH AND MAINSTREAM POLITICIANS. THEY OFTEN RELY ON DISINFORMATION AND HOAXES. The Investigative Center of Ján Kuciak’s analysis shows that Slovakia’s constitutional amendment defining two sexes fueled disinformation and attacks against LGBTI+ people—especially transgender individuals—mirroring a broader international rise in anti-LGBTI legislation and hoaxes promoted by churches and mainstream political parties. (Text in Slovak.)

A MASSIVE GAP IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN POLLING RESULTS BY INDEPENDENT AND PRO-GOVERNMENT POLLSTERS. Átlátszó explains, with detailed charts, how a growing gap has emerged between independent and pro-government pollsters in Hungary, with the opposition TISZA party shown ahead by the former and the ruling Fidesz by the latter—unlike before the last election, when their numbers largely matched. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

A SERIOUS CHILD PROTECTION PROBLEM WORSENED UNDER THE HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT’S WATCH. Direkt36’s investigation shows that Hungary’s child protection system cannot prevent violence in children’s homes because a severe shortage of professionals leaves abused children without adult protection. (Text in Hungarian and English. )

DICTATOR, POSSIBLE WAR CRIMINAL, AND A CORRUPT POLITICIAN. WHO ARE THE HEADS OF STATE THAT WERE THE FIRST TO ACCEPT MEMBERSHIP IN TRUMP’S BOARD OF PEACE. Investigace.cz analyzes how Donald Trump’s creation of his own “Board of Peace,” justified by his dismissal of the UN, is reflected in the controversial authoritarian and corruption-tainted leaders he invited as its first members. (Text in Czech.)

THE BACKGROUND OF THE CANNABIS BUSINESS IN CZECHIA: WE TEST THE PRODUCTS, BUT THEIR COMPOSITION IS SECRET. Investigace.cz’s investigation reveals that Prague’s cannabis weed shops operate in a legal gray zone while becoming a rapidly growing and profitable business dominated by a handful of major cannabinoid suppliers. (Text in Czech.)

DESSERT AND FURTHER READINGS

For those still hungry for more, we’re finishing today’s menu with a couple of recommendations from our friends and colleagues.

WHAT BREAKS FIRST – RUSSIA’S ECONOMY OR ITS WAR? Visegrad Insight hosted an online discussion, chaired by Magda Jakubowska, examining Tomasz Kasprowicz’s analysis of how Russia’s war economy works, who benefits from it, and what may collapse once the fighting ends. Here’s the recap.

POLAND TO SET UP BODY TO LOOK INTO EPSTEIN FILES. Poland will set up a special team to analyse the recently released Jeffrey Epstein files for any connections to Polish victims, possible domestic involvement and even alleged links to Russian intelligence. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is the first world leader to publicly speak about suspicions of Epstein working for Russia to gather kompromat. Read it on Notes from Poland.

‘GIRLS ARE INCREDIBLE’: EPSTEIN TEXTS FORCE PM ADVISER TO QUIT. Slovak diplomat and top adviser to Prime Minister Robert Fico, Miroslav Lajčák, resigned after newly released Jeffrey Epstein-related files revealed he exchanged messages about women and diplomacy with the late convicted sex offender, prompting political pressure and controversy.

DANGEROUS TURN FOR FIDESZ AS CONFLICT WITH ROMA VOTERS ESCALATES. Veronika Munk and Zoltán Szalay from Denník N/Napunk explain in their Substack newsletter how Hungary’s election campaign has entered a risky phase for Fidesz, as offensive remarks by minister János Lázár toward Roma voters threaten to erode the party’s traditionally strong support among a community that could prove decisive in the race.

DOMESTIC FLIGHTS MAKE A QUIET COMEBACK. Our Tamara Kaňuchová reports for The European Correspondent that domestic flights are quietly returning in Europe, with low-cost carriers adding routes—especially at smaller airports like Bratislava—which makes short-distance air travel suddenly competitive again even as overall domestic flight numbers remain below past peaks.

This was VSquare’s 59th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM