Presidential Runoff and CPAC in Poland, Orbán’s Political World Rocked in Hungary

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

RUSSIAN FOUNDATION, AIMED AT HELPING ‘COMPATRIOTS’ ABROAD, SUPPORTS SPIES, CRIMINALS, AND PROPAGANDISTS

For over a decade, Pravfond has been providing legal aid to Russians around the world—including by funding the legal defense of alleged spies, criminals, and propagandists. Now, an archive of nearly 50,000 emails from Pravfond, obtained by journalists from Danish public broadcaster DR and shared with OCCRP and 28 other media partners, including VSquare, exposes the inner workings of a foundation used by the Russian government to advance its interests around the world — defending spies, maintaining networks of influence, and funding propaganda—all under the banner of fighting for the human rights of Russian “compatriots.” The emails show that Pravfond awarded well over 1,000 grants worth millions of dollars to people and organizations across the world over the course of about a decade. Despite being sanctioned by the European Union in 2023, Pravfond continued to send money to recipients in European countries, resulting in multiple possible sanctions violations. Read the story by Ilya Lozovsky (OCCRP) and Martin Laine (Eesti Ekspress, Delfi Estonia), which introduces this impressive cross-border investigative effort, led by Holger Roneemaa, here.

POLISH COMPATRIOTS AND KREMLIN’S NETWORK OF SUPPORT

As part of the “Dear Compatriots” project, we also bring you the FRONTSTORY.PL team’s investigation into Pravfond support for Polish comrades. The main theme of the funding remains legal aid for those accused and convicted of espionage. In Poland, it’s also historical associations, lovers of World War II monuments or marginal political parties. Among other beneficiaries of Pravfond, we come back to the story from January about the Polish spy Stanisław Szypowski who went to prison for 7 years for spying for GRU, and as it turns out, had his legal fees covered by Pravfond. Money from Russia connects an anti-Ukrainian YouTuber; pro-Russian activists maintaining the ideas of patriotism through historical projects about the Soviet army; and organizers of security conferences. Read the full story here and in Polish here.

HUNGARY’S FOOTPRINT IN BOSNIA: RESISTANCE MOUNTS AGAINST DODIK-ORBÁN MINE

Have you ever seen a mining pit? The Orbán government wants to see one in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The controversial mining project, supervised by the president of Republika Srpska (a close ally of Viktor Orbán), Milorad Dodik, is being met with clashes from residents in the area who are ready to stop the project by any means necessary. The Majevica mountain holds lithium, boron, potassium, and other materials. However, extracting these materials means eviction of residents and environmental destruction—including the removal of forests, removal of hillsides, and chemical leakage. Read Atlatszo’s story about Hungary’s involvement here and the original version in Hungarian here (the Atlatszo team also made a documentary, available on YouTube with English subtitles). And if you cannot get enough of Dodik and Orbán, here is our story from March about the potential extraction of Dodik after his arrest with the help of Orbán’s chief bodyguard.

STEP BY STEP THROUGH CĂLIN GEORGESCU’S TIKTOK CAMPAIGN PLAYBOOK

Following Romania’s presidential election—held a second time after being annulled based on classified reports from domestic intelligence agencies—a clearer picture of the rigged campaign that helped propel Călin Georgescu to victory in the first round last autumn has emerged. At the heart of the operation was a network of fake TikTok accounts, reportedly numbering in the tens of thousands, designed to manipulate public opinion and amplify pro-Georgescu messaging.

Among those involved was Bogdan Peșchir, one of Romania’s most influential TikTokers. The campaign also mobilized an army of volunteers, coordinated via encrypted Telegram groups, and used shadowy PR agencies to buy influencer support. Georgescu himself was arrested in late February 2025 and charged with six criminal offenses—though notably, none were directly related to the TikTok campaign.

Read Investigace’s Josef Šlerka’s in-depth analysis on how the operation worked, and what can be said of potential Russian involvement, here (and here is the Czech original).

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter.

ORBÁN FEARS EU SANCTIONS—AND DOMESTIC BLOWBACK

Viktor Orbán’s government is growing increasingly anxious about the EU’s Article 7 procedure, which could lead to Hungary’s voting rights being suspended over rule-of-law violations. Multiple Hungarian government-connected sources told VSquare’s Szabolcs Panyi that Orbán is now treating the process as a real threat—not just political theater in Brussels. At the heart of Orbán’s fear is a domestic concern: that Hungary’s surging opposition could frame the April 2026 election into a de facto referendum on EU membership. If Article 7 progresses to the point where Hungary’s voting rights are suspended, it could fuel public perception that the country is being pushed out of the EU—sparking fears of a potential “Huxit.”

To block Article 7 from advancing, Orbán needs a coalition—or at least one firm ally—to veto it in the Council of the EU, where unanimity is required for final sanctions. A former high-ranking official from an EU member state that strongly supports Article 7 recently recalled a telling conversation from late 2023: a representative from Orbán’s informal blocking coalition—which at the time included Austria, Cyprus, Italy, and Slovakia—confessed they were only pretending to back Hungary. In private, they admitted they’d be open to supporting Article 7 if it came to a vote. That makes Orbán’s strategy even riskier.

While Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico remains his most reliable ally, Fico’s political future is unstable following recent internal turmoil. Without Fico, Orbán’s veto shield could quickly collapse. This sense of vulnerability, according to a Hungarian government-linked source, explains Orbán’s recent, controversial endorsement of Romanian presidential candidate George Simion—a far-right, pro-Kremlin populist who has repeatedly attacked Romania’s Hungarian minority. Despite the backlash at home and in the Hungarian diaspora, Orbán apparently saw Simion as a potential future ally willing to return the favor by vetoing Article 7 proceedings (Simion has eventually lost the Romanian presidential election).

THE UNTHINKABLE IS BECOMING AN OPTION IN HUNGARIAN POLITICS

As Viktor Orbán’s gvernment intensifies its attacks on Hungary’s opposition, labeling them as Ukrainian spies and cracking down on NGOs and independent media through a Russia-style “foreign agent” law, signs of desperation are beginning to show beneath the surface. For the first time in over a decade, all reliable and independent polling shows Fidesz trailing the upstart Tisza Party, led by former government insider-turned-opposition star Péter Magyar. The Orbán government has responded with a barrage of smear campaigns, legal threats, and investigations aimed at Magyar and his allies. Yet the attacks have so far failed to dent Magyar’s rising popularity. Behind closed doors, Fidesz appears to be preparing for the possibility that its usual playbook may not be enough this time. Multiple sources with ties to the Hungarian government told my Hungarian colleague that a backup plan—still theoretical, but increasingly discussed—is quietly being developed: if the polls continue to predict a clear loss, Orbán may not seek re-election in 2026. Completely unthinkable just one year ago.

Instead, Fidesz would nominate another candidate to lead the party into the vote. That candidate, sources say, would be János Lázár, Hungary’s Minister of Construction and Transport. A longtime Fidesz heavyweight, Lázár has recently reemerged as the second most visible figure in the government. In recent months, he has toured the country extensively, held campaign-style events, and in early 2025 consolidated a central communications team made up of PR staff from state-owned companies under his ministry’s control—effectively building a campaign infrastructure of his own. Though Lázár has repeatedly denied having leadership ambitions—publicly stating that he is neither preparing to challenge Orbán nor succeed him—Szabolcs Panyi’s sources confirm that his candidacy is being considered as a distant but very real option. (In case you missed it, check out this Direkt36 story on how Lázár used Hungary’s foreign intelligence service to spy on EU anti-fraud investigators looking into Orbán’s son-in-law.)

MAGA SUPPORTS POLISH RIGHT-WING CANDIDATE IN THE RAZOR-THIN ELECTORAL RACE

The final days of Poland’s presidential race are unfolding with near-hourly revelations—especially concerning the past of right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki. In a major revelation, Szymon Jadczak of wp.pl exposed that Nawrocki took part in brutal hooligan fights in Gdańsk in 2009, brawling alongside known criminals and drug dealers. Meanwhile, onet.pl added further detail, reporting Nawrocki’s alleged involvement in procuring prostitutes for guests at the Grand Hotel in Sopot while working there as a security guard—claims based on testimony from former colleagues.

Despite these mafia-tinged revelations shaking up the political landscape, the race remains razor-thin. The latest polls suggest a neck-and-neck contest. According to a source close to the  campaign of Rafał Trzaskowski—the liberal candidate backed by the Civic Coalition—internal data show the final result could come down to less than one percent. “It may be a matter of tens of thousands of votes, but no one knows which side will come out ahead,” the source said, describing the mood in government circles as increasingly tense. Trzaskowski supporters, however, are drawing hope from the Romanian scenario, where democratic candidate Nicușor Dan ultimately secured a clear victory over far-right frontrunner George Simion.

Dan and Simion both made appearances in the Polish campaign to back their ideological allies. Dan joined Trzaskowski at a public march, while Simion traveled to Rzeszów for the first-ever CPAC Poland, organized by Telewizja Republika—a right-wing outlet closely aligned with Law and Justice and the Central European far-right. With the government having retaken control of public media, including the former Law and Justice stronghold TVP, Telewizja Republika has become the new propaganda hub for the nationalist right, centered around Tomasz Sakiewicz’s media empire. It’s actively fundraising, selling CPAC tickets priced between €100 and €500, attracting far-right donors, and even opening a new branch in Budapest.

CPAC Rzeszów gathered MAGA acolytes, European far-right leaders, and conservative ideologues, encouraging them all to throw their support behind Nawrocki ahead of Sunday’s vote. Panelists included AfD representatives, alt-right media figures like Jack Posobiec and Jan Jekielek, the Epoch Times’ editor-in-chief, and former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. On X, we spotted other attendees such as prominent anti-vaxxer Grzegorz Płaczek and Konfederacja MEP Ewa Zajączkowska, a key figure in Sławomir Mentzen’s presidential campaign.

The MAGA crowd has now shifted south to Budapest for CPAC Hungary, hosted by the Center for Fundamental Rights. Speakers include Viktor Orbán, Robert Fico, Andrej Babiš, and Polish MP Marcin Romanowski—now director of the Hungarian-Polish Institute for Freedom—who has been granted political asylum by the Orbán government.

BREWING IN THE BOTTOM

Here’s a quick taste of what’s been brewing in Central Europe, brought to you with the help of VSquare’s Tamara Kaňuchová.

The Kuciak and Kušnírová Murder Case Overruled Again. In a long-awaited ruling on May 20th, Slovakia’s Supreme Court once again overturned a previous decision by the Specialized Criminal Court and ordered a retrial in the murder case of Ján Kuciak and Martina Kušnírová. As ICJK’s Tomáš Madleňák points out, this marks the second retrial in a case that has been proceeding through Slovak courts since early 2020.

The investigative journalist and his fiancée were shot dead by a hired assassin in February 2018, sparking unprecedented upheaval in Slovak society. Mass protests following their murders forced long-time Prime Minister Robert Fico to resign.

The Supreme Court’s latest ruling comes amid concerning trends in Slovak society. Despite signs that the ruling coalition may seek to tighten its grip on the judiciary, the court’s decision was welcomed by the victims’ families, as the previous ruling from May 2023 acquitted Marian Kočner, the businessman and convicted fraudster with ties to Fico’s Smer party.

“It logically couldn’t have been decided any other way,” Ján Kuciak’s father Jozef offered as a reaction. “We’ll see what will follow. It’s certain that the court proceedings will continue,” he added. (Kočner’s lawyer Marek Para has not yet commented on the decision).

In previous trials, three defendants have been convicted: the hitman, his driver, and one intermediary. However, the case remains unresolved for two key figures: Marian Kočner, who is accused of ordering the murder, and his associate Alena Zsuzsová charged as an intermediary.

The Specialized Criminal Court’s previous ruling—now overturned—had acquitted Kočner while convicting only Zsuzsová. As an appellate court, the Supreme Court cannot alter verdicts directly. It can only uphold lower court decisions or return cases to the lower court for additional evidence gathering, correction of errors, and new decisions. The most drastic step available—taken in this case—is to order a complete retrial. This marks the second time the Supreme Court has found serious deficiencies requiring a retrial, and so it has also transferred the case from the original judicial panel to different judges.

The Orbán “purge” moves fast. Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has proposed a bill called “On the Transparency of Public Life,” giving the Sovereignty Protection Office (SPO) the power to label organizations as threats to national sovereignty—including those receiving foreign funds like EU grants. As we reported in the last edition of goulash, the blacklisted groups would lose the annual 1% income tax donations and have to prove all funding is domestic. The bill also allows authorities to seize documents and devices, raising serious civil liberty concerns. According to Hungarian journalists, after an amendment was accepted by the relevant committee, the authorities could take away this year’s tax 1 percent donations (while the original law proposal contained this possibility only from next year).

While the Hungarian parliament might vote on the bill on the week of June 9, the move is causing a stir in the international community. Editors-in-chief from all over the European continent came together to express disagreement with the newly proposed bill by issuing an open letter, initiated by Denník N’s Veronika Munk: “Hungary Moves to Silence Its Free Press — The EU Must Act Now.” The main call to action is aimed at EU institutions to prevent this law from happening. Find the whole letter on VSquare.

Members of the EU Parliament did not find satisfactory answers upon their visit to Slovakia. In short, the conclusion is that more information is needed to conclude whether there was  misuse of the EU funds. Four members of the European Parliament (two from Czech Republic, one from Slovakia, and one from Germany) came to investigate the scandals around villas that were purchased for money which was declared as an expense for different purposes by government officials. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský said that the pressure on him to not come “makes one believe that someone is hiding something,” and met with lack of collaboration and accusations from Slovak politicians.  The group of MEPs also investigated the abolition of the Special Prosecutor’s Office. Even though this visit does not directly imply Slovakia’s loss of EU funds, the MEPs can request further investigations by relevant EU institutions.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz accuses Slovakia and Hungary of weakening EU unity. Merz threatened to block EU funds to countries that are blocking sanctions against Russia. “We will not be able to avoid a conflict with Hungary and Slovakia if we continue on this course,” said Merz earlier this week. Viktor Orbán has a history of blocking resolutions that are aimed against Russia’s war on Ukraine. Robert Fico threatened blocking sanctions multiple times already and called Merz’s statements “absolutely unacceptable.” Meanwhile, the EU is looking for solutions to deal with possible sanctions blocks from Hungary and Slovakia.

Czech foreign ministry under a cyberattack from China. The attack exposed thousands of unclassified emails from the time of the Czech rotating EU presidency in 2022. The Chinese group had access to communication between embassies and EU institutions, as Politico reports. While the Czech government attributes a national cyberattack to another state’s actor, the Chinese ambassador in the Czech Republic said that China will not accept such accusations without proof. The general secretary of NATO and EU institutions expressed support to the Czech Republic.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

ORBÁN MADE A SECRET TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA, WHERE HE MET WITH THE COUNTRY’S TOP LEADER. The prime minister made the move in silence, neither the Saudi government nor Hungary issued any information about the meeting, despite possible diplomatic advantages. Even internally, Orbán’s government received close to no information about the content or the goal of the meeting. Read more from Direkt36 about the possible explanations for the visit here (text in English).

NEW BILL GIVES SUPERPOWERS TO THE SOVEREIGNTY PROTECTION OFFICE TO SILENCE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND NGOS IN HUNGARY. Atlatszo took on a legal analysis of the SPO bill that we covered in this and the previous issue of Goulash and found that it makes it easier to finance terrorism than to support independent media in Hungary. Once on the list, the organization can no longer object and request judicial review. Read into the activities that make an organization a target and what does the label mean in practice here (in English).

“DEAR COMPATRIOTS”: WHO BENEFITS FROM THE RUSSIAN SANCTIONED FUND IN CZECH REPUBLIC? Didn’t have enough about the Pravfond investigation? Are you particularly interested in a close-up of the Russian money flowing to the Czech Republic? Find out about the coordinator of Russians in the Czech Republic, a journalist who turned out to be a spy and an IT guy planning global cyber attacks here (in Czech). Investigace.cz also made a podcast about the investigation—listen to it here.

“DEAR COMPATRIOTS”: MONEY FLOWS TO SLOVAKIA, WHAT ARE THE SECURITY RISKS? The risks for Slovakia, or any country cooperating with Russian government apparatus, can be grave. Think abuse of power in the leadership of the “Pravfond” fund or dissemination of propaganda, for example. Read about the centers in Slovakia that were meant to facilitate legal aid but evolved into ideological missions here (in Slovak).

This was VSquare’s 43rd Goulash newsletter. We hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

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THE VSQUARE TEAM