Goulash: Here are the Russian military bases threatening Europe & NATO

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

MAPPING RUSSIA’S WAR MACHINE ON NATO’S DOORSTEP

VSquare and Frontstory.pl joined forces with Estonia’s Delfi, Lithuania’s LRT, and OSINT for Ukraine for a months-long investigation to uncover Russia’s military footprint along the borders of Poland and the Baltic countries. Using high-resolution satellite imagery and insights from seasoned military and intelligence sources, my colleagues mapped and analyzed Russian military bases, revealing how GRU special forces in Kaliningrad are training for sabotage attacks while a new nuclear threat builds in Belarus. Even former U.S. Army Europe commander General Ben Hodges was interviewed to help assess these threats—and we also put everything on interactive maps for you!

WHAT THE 2024 ELECTION WILL MEAN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

We don’t yet know who will win the presidential election, but we have some clues about what each candidate’s presidency might mean for Central Europe. Our U.S.-based editor, Emily Tamkin, offers her take: If Harris wins, she’ll likely keep the U.S. close to Ukraine and NATO, fending off Russian influence and supporting pesky concepts like “democracy.” Trump, on the other hand, might see Putin as a friend, ignore Europe’s calls, slap on tariffs, and make journalists sweat. Also, as Emily highlights, he could make it harder for Central European immigrants in the U.S. to bring over and reunite with family members.

TRACKING THE ‘GREEN EAGLE’: UNPACKING CEE’S BIGGEST OIL COMPANY’S PROMISES TO ‘GO GREEN’

Polish fuel giant Orlen wants you to think it’s all about saving the planet, branding itself as a leader in “energy transformation”—but it seems their real battle is preserving their bottom line. They’re busy clinging to Europe’s last oil refinery but have been claiming a space under the green spotlight by landing on the “World’s Most Ethical Companies” list, though critics argue that some of their green pledges are as unproven and mythical as unicorns. VSquare and Frontstory.pl’s Tadeusz Michrowski reveals that Orlen’s eco-promises are also buoyed by some questionable trading partners, mostly from the U.S., whose carbon footprints Orlen politely overlooks. In 2020, the company declared it would be “carbon neutral by 2050” and even repainted their red eagle logo a reassuring shade of green—because nothing says “climate warrior” like a quick logo refresh!

CLIMATE DISINFORMATION PEDDLERS TARGET THE VATICAN AND US CONGRESS

This international investigation reveals how a cult-like movement called AllatRa and its offshoot, Creative Society, pose as climate advocates while spreading disinformation and denying human-driven climate change. In recent years, they’ve gained surprising influence, from meeting the Pope to lobbying the U.S. Congress. Although it originated in Ukraine, the country’s security agency, SBU, shut down AllatRa after discovering that its missionaries supported Russia’s war against Ukraine and promoted a “union of Slavic peoples” under Moscow’s leadership. Creative Society’s apocalyptic narratives and disinformation still reach millions online globally.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

EUROPEAN BROADCASTERS UNION STAYS SILENT ON FICO’S CRACKDOWN ON PUBLIC MEDIA

As Robert Fico’s government intensifies its control over Slovak public media, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) – also known as the organizer of the Eurovision song contest, an event embracing European values and equality – appears complacent. A year ago in Brussels, during an on background meeting, I challenged EBU representatives on their failure to act as two of its members – Hungarian and Polish public media – transformed into state-controlled propaganda machines, even allowing a Hungarian representative to assume an EBU committee leadership role. All this while Hungary quit Eurovision as the song contest was reportedly “too gay” for them. These days, despite the Fico government’s recent crackdown on Slovak public media, and widespread resignations of staff in protest, EBU remains silent, effectively legitimizing these anti-democratic actions. No suspension, no expulsion, no criticism.

My recent detailed inquiries to the EBU regarding Fico’s planned political control over Slovak public media (renamed from RTVS to STVR) and Hungary’s similar challenges were met with silence again (no reply), mirroring the EBU’s stance last year. At that time, however, EBU representatives somewhat acknowledged to me that my concerns are valid but showed no willingness to act, reinforcing the disconnect between EBU’s European values and the actions of some of its members. By turning a blind eye, EBU continues to empower governments that seek to suppress independent and real journalism, undermining its public service mission. In contrast, the Czech public radio and broadcaster (Český rozhlas/ČRo) has indefinitely suspended cooperation with the Slovak public media this summer.

NO WIDE-SPREAD BOYCOTT OF EUROPEAN LEADERS’ BUDAPEST SUMMITS

As the European Political Community summit and the informal EU summit in Budapest (November 7-8) approach, European governments had to finalize their attendance plans. When Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán surprised allies this summer with his so-called peace mission—unannounced visits to Moscow, Beijing, and Mar-a-Lago, positioning himself as the self-styled EU leader—it seemed many EU governments would boycott Hungary’s presidency events, sending lower-level officials or skipping them entirely. However, as I reported months ago, the only gathering of true significance to Orbán is the two-day, high-level summit in November. According to multiple foreign government officials and diplomats I’ve spoken with, as of now, only the Baltic states and some Nordic countries may boycott the Budapest events—though even Sweden’s prime minister is expected to attend (it seems Orbán’s delay of Sweden’s NATO membership has been forgiven).

Officials I spoke with gave several reasons for deciding to attend. First, smaller countries are more likely to boycott if larger ones do—but that’s not happening, as even Poland seems to be attending. Second, agenda topics like Ukraine, EU accession for the Western Balkans, and Georgia outweigh concerns about the host. Finally, this will be European leaders’ first in person chance to discuss the U.S. presidential election results—and how best to prepare for a Trump or Harris presidency. The Hungarian EU presidency initially set this Monday as the deadline for EU countries to register their delegations, and there was some hesitation among certain member states over Orbán’s trip to Georgia following its contested election results. However, while a few countries may still pull out at the last minute, the vast majority currently plan to attend.

POLISH EU PRESIDENCY PLANS TO UNDO SOME OF THE DAMAGE DONE BY HUNGARY

Viktor Orbán essentially hijacked the Hungarian EU presidency to promote his own pro-Russian and pro-Chinese agenda. His recent trip to Tbilisi to legitimize the pro-Kremlin Georgian regime is just the latest example. However, a sharp shift is expected when Poland takes over from January 1, 2025. VSquare’s editor-in-chief Anna Gielewska tells me that, according to her Polish government sources, the aim is to do the exact opposite: push through new sanctions against Russia; support Ukraine; and make combating disinformation one of the Polish presidency’s priorities. And while Hungary tried to use its half a year in a way that mostly aligns with the Kremlin’s interests, one of Poland’s other priorities is to give heavy support to Moldova’s EU accession so that the country could be accepted fast – before Russian hybrid operations in the country make it impossible. For example, at the beginning of next year, a special group is expected to be formed to help Moldova, likely with former Minister for European Affairs Ewa Ośniecka-Tamecka as one of its key members. The idea is to offer Moldova practical tips and support in negotiations, along with hands-on help to meet the goals expected by the EU. The so-called ‘Natolin Group’—based at the College of Europe in Warsaw’s Natolin campus—brings together individuals who negotiated Poland’s accession back in 2004 and would be the best match,” a source close to Polish diplomacy explained.

SECOND HELPINGS

We’d already reported but the story went on… here’s a second bite of our previous stories and scoops.

Hungary’s propaganda empire to be recalibrated. Orbán is frustrated with his own propagandists, blaming them for the uncontested rise of Péter Magyar’s TISZA party, and is planning a major reshuffle in government-controlled media – this is what I reported in September. Since then, changes appear to be underway. Editors-in-chief at several pro-government county newspapers have been replaced, along with others at some smaller national outlets. According to Forbes Hungary, however, even the main print and online media conglomerate, Mediaworks, may be split into smaller, more flexible outlets to better manage media influence. Meanwhile, a Hungarian government-connected source told me that, besides structural changes to these media outlets, the relative inefficiency of government propaganda will also mean that many content creators (let’s not call them journalists) will be fired en masse with some outlets possibly merged or closed down.

Ex-CEO of Orlen Obajtek acting as a middleman between Orbán’s circles and PiS. A major investigation by VSquare and Frontstory.pl this summer exposed the former Polish oil company head’s Hungarian connections, revealing he’s hiding out in a luxury penthouse owned by Orbán family associates, all while pretending to campaign for the European Parliament in Poland. Later, his MEP asset declaration revealed he’s receiving a hefty €15,000 monthly salary from the same company, and in a previous Goulash issue, I also wrote how Viktor Orbán’s daughter seems to be his follower on Instagram. Obajtek keeps resurfacing in Hungary-related news: as Newsweek Polska reported not long ago, he sought funding from Orbán proxies (Hungary’s TV2 Group) to buy Poland’s top TV station, TVN, to possibly turn it into a channel supporting Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party. Meanwhile, sources in the media industry told VSquare’s Anna Gielewska that the US-owned network is unlikely to accept any Obajtek or Orbán-linked bid.

Vasyl Bodnar appointed as Ukraine’s new ambassador to Poland. What I reported a month ago is now official: the current Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey was just appointed by president Zelensky as ambassador to Poland. Vasyl Bodnar had already served in Warsaw, speaks fluent Polish, and he’s said to be close to the new Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha. More on Bodnar in our previous issue.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

A HUNGARIAN BUSINESS WITH RUSSIAN GAS STATIONS EXTENDED TO SLOVAKIA. LUKOIL’S STATIONS REACHED SLOVNAFT THROUGH SHELL COMPANIES. ICJK.sk’s new investigation examines how, since Russia’s 2014 attack on Ukraine, Lukoil’s gas stations in Slovakia and the region changed ownership through the involvement of a Hungarian businessman and offshore companies. (Text in Slovak.)

AUTHORITIES REMAIN SILENT, OVERSIGHT FALTERS. VISEGRAD COUNTRIES UNDER THE MICROSCOPE OF THE PEGASUS SPYWARE. Investigace.cz presents a regional overview of spyware surveillance, highlighting abuses of Israeli Pegasus spyware in Poland and Hungary, while the topic also sparks debate in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. (Text in Czech.)

HUNGARY HAS LAGGED BEHIND EUROPE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST HOSPITAL-ACQUIRED INFECTIONS FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS. Data obtained by Direkt36.hu reveals which Hungarian hospitals are most behind in conducting infection tests and ensuring proper hand disinfection practices. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

ORBÁN’S ELITE ACADEMY HAS ITS OWN HOTEL, SPENDS USD 5.4 MILLION TO RENOVATE IT. Nicknamed “Little Hilton,” the Conference Hotel in the city of Győr was acquired in 2021 by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation (MCC). Currently undergoing renovations with a 2 billion HUF (USD 5.4 million) budget, the project excluded lower-cost bids, citing them as “disproportionately low.” (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 29th Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM