Goulash: Welcome to the Hotel Orbán, Such a Costly Place; Russian Diplomats Buzzing in Slovakia

FRESH FROM VSQUARE

HOTEL ORBÁN: HOW HUNGARY’S RULING FAMILY BENEFITED FROM THE EU PRESIDENCY

Hungary’s EU presidency ended in December, and we’re still trying to piece together how public money was spent on the lavish events in the second half of 2024. Unsurprisingly, as my Direkt36 colleague Flóra Tárkányi and I discovered, when there was an opportunity to enrich the prime minister’s family, the Orbán government didn’t let a single euro cent go to waste. In this story, we merged two parts of our investigation into how the government ensured that visiting EU delegations spent their countries’ taxpayer money at “Hotel Orbán” (officially the Hotel Dorothea), the pet tourism project of Orbán’s daughter Ráhel and son-in-law István Tiborcz. As we revealed, even the Finnish delegation, which had preferred a different hotel, ended up checking in at the Dorothea. Moreover, even though it’s now Poland’s turn at the helm of the EU presidency, Hungary is still organizing a meeting in Budapest — and once again recommending the ruling family’s hotel to foreign guests. Read the full story here.

HOW THE FAR-RIGHT AND FAR-LEFT WENT VIRAL ON GERMAN TIKTOK

Germany has been in nonstop election mode since mid-2024, and social media — especially TikTok — has been at the heart of it. With 24 million users (nearly 30% of the population) in the country, TikTok plays a massive role in shaping young voters’ political views. In the under-29 crowd, where almost 40% use the app daily, both the far-right AfD and the left-wing Die Linke made big gains. This is the latest episode in a series by Investigace’s data analyst Josef Šlerka, who’s been digging into disinformation and social media operations throughout the German election cycle. In case you missed it, make sure to read Josef’s article on the various Russian intelligence-linked operations targeting both the German and broader EU elections. Also worth checking out is Tamara Kanuchová’s interview with the author: Josef breaks down the latest debates around TikTok in both the U.S. and Europe. But most importantly — don’t miss the fresh piece!

PEGASUS SPYWARE TARGETED OVER 1,200 WHATSAPP USERS, COURT DOCUMENTS SHOW

Investigace’s latest article reveals that, according to newly released court documents, NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware was used in a 2019 hacking campaign to target 1,223 WhatsApp users across 51 countries — including the Czech Republic and Hungary. The filings, published last week, were submitted by Meta as part of its ongoing lawsuit against the Israeli spyware maker NSO Group. It’s hard to believe that it’s been five years since the Pegasus Project revelations — where I worked alongside Direkt36’s András Pethő and Investigace’s Pavla Holcová, among others — but new details are still emerging. I have a feeling there’s still more to come. Until then, read the new piece here.

WHO LOVES RUSSIA, WHO FEARS CHINA? GEOPOLITICAL ATTITUDES ACROSS THE VISEGRÁD FOUR

The fact that 67% of Robert Fico’s voters view Russia positively — or even very positively — three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine is almost unfathomable. Equally striking is how the majority of Hungarians remain strongly pro-EU and negative toward Russia despite Viktor Orbán’s once highly effective pro-Kremlin propaganda machine. These are just a few of the intriguing insights from a detailed study based on surveys conducted across all four Visegrád countries. We’ve already shared the main findings from the study by the Bratislava-based Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), but now you can dive into the full article version, packed with even more revealing details.

SPICY SCOOPS

There is always a lot of information that we hear and find interesting and newsworthy but don’t publish as part of our investigative reporting — and share instead in this newsletter. 

RUSSIA’S DIPLOMATIC BLITZ IN SLOVAKIA RAISES RED FLAGS

In recent months, Russian diplomats in Slovakia have shifted into a noticeably higher gear. Despite Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and sweeping European Union sanctions, officials from the Russian Embassy in Bratislava appear to be operating with increased energy and little constraint. According to multiple Central European government sources, Russian embassy staff have been criss-crossing the country, organizing cultural events, building new partnerships, and embedding themselves in local communities at a faster pace than before. “This kind of grassroots-level networking creates the perfect environment for talent spotting,” one official noted, referring to the potential for intelligence recruitment. It’s also concerning that Russian intelligence activity under diplomatic cover in Slovakia could be linked to operations targeting the Czech Republic.

These developments have further fueled concerns about the Fico government’s approach to counterintelligence. As previously reported, Slovakia’s intelligence agency, the Slovak Information Service (SIS), has already been cut off from certain sensitive information-sharing channels on Russia, China, and Ukraine-related topics by allies due to lack of trust. While much of Europe has worked to isolate Russia diplomatically, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico infamously visited Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin last December. More recently, Ľuboš Blaha, deputy chairman of Fico’s ruling Smer party, met with none other than Russian spy chief Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the SVR. According to recent statements by Fico and his allies, they appear far more concerned about an alleged Western and Ukrainian plot against their government than about Moscow’s spies. (In case you missed it, check out our previous series on Russian intelligence activity in Central Europe and Slovakia — including the story of GRU officer Anton Goriev, who was stationed in Hungary before being expelled from Slovakia, and our regional investigation into signals intelligence operations conducted from Russian embassy compounds.)

ORBÁN TARGETS U.S.–HUNGARIAN DUAL CITIZENS WHILE HAVING APPOINTED ONE TO LEAD A GOVERNMENT INSTITUTE

Hungary’s parliament passed a series of new restrictive laws, including a controversial provision allowing the Orbán government to suspend the Hungarian citizenship of dual nationals for up to 10 years. The law targets individuals who also hold citizenship from non-EU countries and can be triggered if the government deems them a threat to public order or national security — a decision made solely by the government. While Orbán and his allies haven’t named specific targets, several government-linked sources told me the measure is widely seen as a tool to go after U.S.–Hungarian dual citizens accused of undermining the regime by supporting opposition parties, independent media, or civil society. Orbán’s anti-American rhetoric is long-standing. For years, he has accused figures like George Soros and the CIA of interfering in Hungarian affairs, branding critics as “dollar left-wing” or “dollar media.” But with the geopolitical landscape shifting — especially with Trump’s return and his attacks and trade war against the EU — this old propaganda line is colliding with new realities. What once served as cynical messaging is now becoming a legitimate national security concern, though not in the way Orbán’s government originally framed it. Hungarian national security experts told me that Orbán’s inner circle’s proximity to Trumpworld figures like J.D. Vance — whose Signal messages infamously revealed his deep animosity towards Europe — could become a vulnerability, easily exploited by the current U.S. administration.

Ironically, for example, it was Orbán’s government that appointed the U.S.-born political scientist Gladden Pappin to head the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA), a government think tank that reports directly to the Prime Minister’s team and is overseen by Viktor Orbán’s political director Balázs Orbán (no relation). Pappin has no formal training or experience in foreign policy or international affairs and doesn’t speak Hungarian — but is closely connected to U.S conservative and MAGA circles. An earlier Wired investigation into JD Vance’s Venmo (a U.S. mobile payment service) network revealed that Pappin even shows up as one of Vance’s Venmo friends. Pappin became a dual U.S.–Hungarian citizen, yet his appointment — an outsider with no foreign policy credentials leading Hungary’s top foreign policy think tank — is unprecedented and raises national security concerns. While former intelligence officials told me that HIIA has historically had little access to classified information, pro-government propaganda outlet Mandiner reported — citing Intelligence Online — that since Balázs Orbán and Pappin took over, the institute has gained greater access to sensitive intelligence. HIIA didn’t respond to my request for comment, including whether Pappin holds a Hungarian security clearance. However, a source with knowledge of the institute confirmed that he passed a national security screening in mid-2023. Meanwhile, according to the Financial Times, the European Commission has begun issuing burner phones and basic laptops to some staff traveling to the U.S. — a precaution previously reserved for trips to China — due to growing concerns over U.S. espionage.

NO DEAL: WHY TRUMP’S TARIFFS WON’T SPARE ORBÁN’S HUNGARY

Despite Orbán’s constant praise for Donald Trump, the second Trump administration could deal a serious blow to Hungary’s economy. A renewed U.S. trade war with the EU, tariffs on European goods — especially cars — and even steeper tariffs on Chinese products are expected to hurt Hungary, whose economy now relies heavily on both German carmakers and Chinese EV and battery production. Several credible analyses suggest Hungary and Slovakia would be among the hardest-hit economies in the EU and globally, alongside Germany and Sweden. Still, Orbán and his allies continue to float the idea of a bilateral deal that would shield Hungary from Trump’s tariffs. But experts see no realistic path to such exemptions for individual EU countries — especially since Hungary no longer even has a double taxation treaty with the U.S., which was canceled by the Biden administration in 2022. That absence already complicates U.S.–Hungarian business ties, making special treatment even less likely. While the Orbán government has been investing significant effort into reviving the treaty, a government-linked source told me that Trump administration officials informed Hungary’s government, including the Ministry for National Economy, in early April that the issue is “not timely,” dashing Hungarian hopes. Meanwhile, Orbán did succeed in getting his chief of staff, Antal Rogán, removed from the U.S. Global Magnitsky sanctions list — but while that may benefit the regime politically, it does little to advance Hungary’s broader economic interests. (Hungary’s government didn’t reply to my request for comment.)

SECOND HELPINGS

We’d already reported but the story went on… here’s a second bite of our previous stories and scoops.

Fico’s government quietly helped the Lukashenko family. Belarusian investigative journalists at Buro Media, with a little help from VSquare, solved the mystery of how one member of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s family managed to dodge EU sanctions. The member in question is Hanna Lukashenko, daughter-in-law of President Alexander Lukashenko and wife of his middle son, Dzmitry. She serves as general producer at Muzykalnaya Mediakompaniya, a company holding government contracts for entertainment content and propaganda, and previously led a covert election campaign supporting her father-in-law under the “Unity Marathon” initiative. She was supposed to be sanctioned in August 2024; however, one member state intervened. “Hanna L. [Hanna Lukashenko] was proposed by LT [Lithuania] and indeed blocked by SK [Slovakia],” a European Union official told me, confirming Buro Media’s initial scoop that it was Robert Fico’s pro-Kremlin government that saved her.

Poland’s TVN auction canceled, channel to remain under U.S. ownership for now. Polish daily Rzeczpospolita broke news a few days ago about the closely-watched process of the sale Poland’s most influential TV station—a story we’ve also been regularly covering. Rzeczpospolita obtained an internal letter from the company’s management to TVN staff, informing them that “the optimal choice is for TVN to remain within the structures of WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery),” its current U.S. owner. This decision effectively cancels the entire bidding process. As a reminder: At first, it seemed that Viktor Orbán might intervene to acquire the channel. Then Donald Tusk’s government stepped in to block such a move. The process continued with Polish groups emerging as frontrunners. Now, however, a source close to one of the bidders confirmed to me that the sale has indeed been called off — but added that, at this point, no one really knows why.

MORE FROM OUR PARTNERS

WHAT CONNECTS NORBERT BÖDÖR WITH MARIAN KOČNER AND THE SURVEILLANCE OF JÁN KUCIAK? An excerpt from Tomáš Madleňák and ICJK’s new book (Slovak title: Tajomstvá Kočnerovej knižnice; English title: Stories from the Captured State) details the alleged role of Slovak oligarch Norbert Bödör in the surveillance that ultimately aided the killers of Ján Kuciak and Martina Kušnírová. (Text in Slovak.)

BEFORE THE SOVEREIGNTY HYSTERIA, FIDESZ-LINKED ORGANIZATIONS ACCEPTED A LOT OF GERMAN GRANTS. ​​Átlátszó’s article reveals how, despite its ongoing campaign against “foreign-funded” NGOs and media, Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party and its network received hundreds of thousands of euros in foreign funding — mostly from Germany, and in particular from the CDU’s party foundation, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

OUR ONLY SOURCE OF POWER IS OUR AUDIENCE. Originally published as part of Nieman Reports’ “Dear America” essay series, Direkt36’s András Pethő writes for a U.S. audience about what journalists might expect under Trump — drawing from his experience in Orbán-led Hungary, a similarly repressive political environment. (Text in Hungarian and English.)

This was VSquare’s 41st Goulash newsletter. I hope you gobbled it up. Come back soon for another serving. 

Still hungry? Check the previous newsletter issues here! 

SZABOLCS PANYI & THE VSQUARE TEAM